February’s housing market shows 2023 has returned to normal seasonal trends, something not experienced since 2019. Housing sales are back on trend with increases for the month, as are construction starts and permits. Rebounding to pre-pandemic levels means sales and construction activity are still decreased compared with the previous two years. This is likely due to inflated mortgage rates and high inflation. Days on market (DOM) increased across all major metros as inventory rose because of deflated demand. All of these factors point to a cooling housing market and a return to form.

Supply^* Rises as Inventory Gains Ground

Single-family construction permits reversed their course for February, gaining significant ground with a 17 percent increase month over month (MOM). All four major metros contributed to the statewide rise, as they all had positive gains for February. Houston led the way with a 33 percent increase over last month (3,793 permits), while Austin lagged the rest with a 0.7 percent gain (1,160 permits).

Construction generally hits a seasonal low in December, and peaks in March or June. Single-family construction starts are following this trend with a seasonally adjusted MOM increase of almost 2 percent. December’s low point reached levels not seen since 2015, due in large part to the drastic increase in mortgage rates. March starts, around 9,200 according to Dodge Data & Analytics, pale in comparison to the previous two March levels, which were record-breaking peaks at the time.

The state’s total single-family starts value reached $4.3 billion in February, down from $7.5 billion in February 2022. Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) are responsible for more than half of that. Houston continues to account for the largest portion of Texas’ construction values with 29 percent of the market share. DFW accounts for 25 percent.  Austin and San Antonio remained on par with previous years’ market percentage shares.

February’s active listings continued their upward trend since March 2022 after having slowed in the past two months, when the metric fell to 91,000 units after seasonal adjustment. Although, these levels are still lower than pre-pandemic listing levels. Additionally, despite the small dip last month, months of inventory (MOI) returned to an upward trend as inventory levels reached three months. Austin’s MOI fell to just below three months. Dallas followed a similar trend, with MOI dropping to 2.2 months. Meanwhile, Houston and San Antonio bolstered the state with increases, raising the overall months of inventory.

Demand Increases as Sales and Prices Jump

Housing demand started the new year with an upward trend, as sales volume expanded for two consecutive months. Total home sales had a strong boost of 7.8 percent MOM, doubling last month’s 3.7 percent growth. Sales gained more than 2,000 transactions in a month, marching upward to a seasonally adjusted rate of 29,728 closings. Austin and Houston, the two metros that had their great rebound in January, stayed flat this month (Table 1). Meanwhile, Dallas and San Antonio spiked up. Dallas’ 17.1 percent growth brought more than 1,200 additional homes under contract in February.