Demand
As a result of higher mortgage rates, housing demand has fallen, and homes are sitting on the market longer. Sales improved slightly in August (5 percent MOM) from July’s steep decline, reaching a seasonally adjusted rate of 29,300 sales. Overall home sales have been in freefall since around April. At the current rate, 2022 sales will likely fall short of 2021. According to the Center’s Data Relevance Program, the sales level was down 16.3 percent from a year earlier.
Sales in all major metros remained low as mortgage pressures rattled buyers. Austin and Houston’s closed listings were most affected with a 20 percent year-over-year (YOY) reduction, while DFW and San Antonio pulled back more than 10 percent. Existing-home sales, which make up 80 percent of Texas’ housing market, inched down for the seventh straight month. Texas’ marginal recovery in August was concentrated in the remaining 20 percent of the housing market, where Dallas’ new-construction market had double-digit growth.
Texas’ average days on market (DOM) was 38 days, up from 29 days in March. However, compared with the five-year average of 57 days between 2014 and the early 2020s, the relatively short time suggests a persistent imbalance between sellers’ and buyers’ bargaining-power. Amid slowing sales, Austin’s market reacted most aggressively, doubling the listing time in the past five months, while DFW reacted most moderately.
When days on market are differentiated based on the home market, the existing homes’ DOMs are conspicuously lower than new homes’. This could possibly be due to differing price points as new homes tend to be more expensive than the average existing-home listing. Categorized by price cohorts, homes priced between $300K and $500K had the shortest listing time, taken off list in 34 days.
Prices
The downward trend for Texas’ median home price continued in August. The state’s seasonally adjusted median price was $342,000, falling more than $10,000 in three months. Prices dropped in all metros except San Antonio, which advanced $2,000 this month (Table 2). Dallas and Houston, Texas’ two largest MSA areas, reported modest declines of $2,000, while Austin took the biggest hit of $11,000. Although housing prices are recently under correction, they remain much elevated from year-ago prices, accelerating 11.4 percent YOY. Even for Austin, the price in this much-affected market was up 5.5 percent YOY.