Housing-Insight-Sept-2021

Texas Housing Insight – September 2021 Summary

by Real Estate ArticlesResourcesStats

Total Texas housing sales ticked up 0.9 percent during the third quarter as inventories remained relatively low in September. Most of the quarterly increase can be attributed to accelerated activity for existing homes priced above $300,000, offsetting the decline in new-home sales and reduced transactions in the lower price ranges. Texas’ homeownership rate decreased amid reduced housing affordability. Overall, housing demand remained healthy but was hindered by depleted inventories, pushing annual median home-price growth well into double-digit territory. Despite low levels of inventory, supply-side indicators declined compared with year-ago measures as supply chain issues persist.

Supply1

The Residential Construction Cycle (Coincident) Index, which measures current construction levels, decreased nationally but increased slightly for Texas as improvements in industry wages and employment outweighed depressed construction values. Construction activity is expected to slow in coming months as indicated by the Texas Residential Construction Leading Index (RCLI), which fell amid lower weighted building permits and housing starts, while the ten-year real Treasury bill yield decreased. Austin and Houston’s leading index reflected statewide fluctuations, while the trend decreased in the former and increased slightly in the latter. Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) and San Antonio’s indexes decreased, trending downward despite issuing more building permits and elevating residential starts.

According to Zonda data, the supply side contracted at the earliest stage of the construction cycle with a 3.3 percent quarterly decrease in the number of new vacant developed lots (VDLs). DFW accounted for most of the losses amid a reduction in investment across all price cohorts except in homes priced between $400,000 and $499,000. Similarly, San Antonio’s lot development decreased significantly due to depressed activity at the bottom of the price spectrum. Despite the statewide contraction, Houston and Austin’s metric gained as VDLs intended for homes priced between $200,000 and $299,000 rebounded in the former and development heated up for lots targeted for homes selling between $300,000 and $399,000 in the latter.

Quarterly fluctuations in single-family construction permits reflected movements in VDLs. Although the metric ticked up 0.9 percent on a monthly basis, the trend continued its downward trajectory amid a recent reduction in issuance. Houston and DFW topped the national list at the metropolitan level and accounted for most of the state’s improvement, issuing 3,889 and 3,345 nonseasonally adjusted permits, respectively. In Central Texas, permits staggered in September and trended downward after negative quarterly growth. Austin issued 1,829 single-family permits, while San Antonio issued 1,061. Meanwhile, Texas’ multifamily sector registered a surge in issuance as investment shifted from duplexes, triplexes, and four-unit structures to buildings with five or more units. The multifamily metric remained up 13.3 percent year to date (YTD) relative to the same period last year.

With lumber prices falling, total Texas housing starts increased for the second consecutive quarter. Zonda data revealed roughly 38,000 homes broke ground in the Texas Triangle in 3Q2021, pushing single-family housing starts up 3.9 percent on a quarterly basis amid strengthening economic conditions and robust housing demand. Housing starts in North Texas and Austin reached an all-time high, increasing 8 and 13.8 percent, respectively, from last quarter. Activity also hit record levels in San Antonio, elevating 6.4 percent due to increased investment for homes priced more than $300,000 but decreased in Houston for similarly priced homes.

Single-family private construction values declined 14.4 percent this quarter, extending its contraction to four consecutive months as the metric trended downward in all of Texas’ major metros. On a monthly basis, however, values in Houston increased slightly, but the incremental change did little in lifting the 12.7 percent quarter-over-quarter (QOQ) reduction. Values also fell in Central Texas as Austin and San Antonio’s single-family construction contracted 18.3 and 19.4 percent, respectively. Similarly, activity in DFW declined 25.7 percent QOQ.

The number of homes added to the Texas Multiple Listing Services expanded in September, nudging Texas’ months of inventory (MOI) up to 1.6 months as inventory rose across all price ranges. A total MOI around six months is considered a balanced housing market. The price range at which inventory was at its most expansive was between $200,000 and $299,000, increasing its MOI to 1.3 months. Despite the monthly improvement, homes priced less than $300,000 remained constrained.

Supply in the major metros reflected the statewide fluctuation as inventories expanded at the metropolitan level. Austin’s MOI increased to a month, while the metric in North Texas and San Antonio flattened to 1.2 and 1.7 months, respectively. Although Houston’s overall MOI was greater than the state average at 1.4 months, inventory for homes priced less than $300,000 flattened to 1.2 months. Depleted inventory is a major headwind to the continued health of Texas’ housing market.

Demand

Sales rebounded in September despite ongoing inventory constraints, elevating total housing sales 0.9 percent QOQ. Strong quarterly growth in the luxury-home sector and double-digit growth for homes priced between $300,000 and $499,000 outweighed reduced activity for homes priced less than $300,000. The increase in the major metros exceeded the state average, except in Houston, where quarterly sales contracted.

In contrast to elevated quarterly sales in the existing-home market, Zonda data revealed negative sales growth in three of the major metros’ new-home sectors, pulling the statewide metric down 8.2 percent QOQ. New-home sales in Austin, however, rose 7.9 percent to 5,294 sales, rebounding after last quarter’s steep decline as activity accelerated for homes priced less than $200,000 and for homes priced between $400,000 and $499,000. New-home sales in North Texas and San Antonio declined 8.5 and 8.7 percent QOQ, respectively, even as transactions rose for homes priced between $400,000 and $499,000. Houston’s metric tumbled 13.6 percent QOQ.

Amid recovering economic conditions and overall robust sales activity, Texas’ homeownership rate ticked down to 63.5 percent, 1.7 percentage points below the U.S. rate, per the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey. Nationally, homeownership dipped slightly from last quarter for white households but increased for minority households and householders under 35 years. Metro-level homeownership rates exceeded the national average only in San Antonio, where it improved 8.6 percentage points to 65.9 percent. The metric fell in Austin and Houston to 59.9 and 60.9 percent, respectively. The rate in North Texas ticked down 1.1 percentage points to 60.5 percent. Homeownership rates may remain depressed in the coming months as COVID-19 foreclosure-protection policies expired and home prices continue to rise.

Texas’ average days on market (DOM) increased from last month’s record low to 30 days. This marked the first increase since July 2020. The relatively low DOM indicated robust housing demand despite lackluster sales. Austin’s DOM shed almost six weeks off its year-ago reading, plummeting to an average of 18 days, while homes in North Texas sold after an average of 23 days in both Fort Worth and Dallas. San Antonio and Houston’s metrics also registered steep annual declines and hovered one day above the statewide average, falling to 31 days in each respective MSA. Despite monthly increases in the average DOM in all the major metros, the metric continued to trend downward as low levels persisted, corroborating strong housing demand.

During possible movement to monetary policy normalization starting with the tapering of bond purchases by the Federal Reserve Bank, economic growth forecasts for the rest of the year cooled as the initial and strongest stage of recovery likely reached its peak. It’s unclear whether inflation pressures are temporary or permanent. The ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield increased to 1.4 percent but was down from pre-pandemic levels of 1.62 percent, and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate ticked up to 2.9 percent. For the typical Texas mortgagee, the median mortgage rate ticked down in August3 to 3.1 and 2.9 percent for GSE and non-GSE loans, respectively, and, similar to the national headline metric, remained constant relative to year-ago levels. Texas home-purchase applications increased for three consecutive months in September but diminished 12.7 percent YTD, and refinance applications declined 14.6 percent over the same period. Lenders adding more requisites and the shrinking pool of households able to refinance are likely impacting refinance activity. (For more information, see “Finding a Representative Interest Rate for the Typical Texas Mortgagee“.)

In August, the median loan-to-value ratio (LTV) constituting the “typical” Texas conventional home loan dropped from 87.8 a year ago to 84.3. The debt-to-income ratio (DTI) declined from 37.1 to 35.2, while the median credit score jumped 12 points in the last year to 752. The LTV and DTI for GSE borrowers decreased from 85.5 and 35.5 last August to 85.2 and 36, respectively. Overall improved credit profiles reflect the fact that only the most qualified housing applicants are able to outbid their competition for their desired homes amid exceptionally tight inventories and robust demand.

Prices

The Texas median home price rose for the ninth consecutive month, increasing 16.8 percent YOY to a record-breaking $310,100 in September. The ongoing compositional sales shift toward higher-priced homes contributed to a higher median price. The share of luxury-homes sold in Austin more than doubled in the last year, representing more than two-fifths of total transactions and contributing to the 28.3 percent YOY surge in the median price ($456,300). The Dallas metric ($378,300) gained 17 percent, while annual price growth in Fort Worth ($315,900) elevated 18.6 percent. Houston ($303,900) and San Antonio’s ($294,200) metrics rose 14.8 and 15.5 percent, respectively.

The Texas Repeat Sales Home Price Index accounts for compositional price effects and corroborated substantial home-price appreciation as the index hovered near a series maximum, gaining 18.2 percent YOY. The metric skyrocketed 36.1 percent in Austin, followed by North Texas with annual home-price appreciation at 22.9 and 20 percent in Dallas and Fort Worth, respectively. San Antonio posted a 17.2 percent annual hike, while Houston’s index registered double-digit growth for five consecutive months, elevating 14.9 percent. Rapid price growth outpaced wage gains, adding additional pressure to housing affordability.

Single-Family Forecast

The Texas Real Estate Research Center projected single-family housing sales using monthly pending listings from the preceding period (Table 1). Only one month in advance was projected due to uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic and the availability of reliable and timely data. Texas sales are expected to tick down 0.3 percent in October after rebounding this month. The metric is estimated to decline 5 and 0.5 percent in Austin and San Antonio, respectively, with additional decreases of 0.8 percent in Houston. Only sales in DFW are expected to remain positive, increasing 0.7 percent next month. Sales through September 2021 should accelerate relative to the same period in 2020, except in North Texas, where forecasts predict a 2.1 percent dip in transactions.

Household Pulse Survey

According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey, the share of Texas homeowners behind on their mortgage payments decreased to 5 percent in September (Table 2). The metric within Texas’ largest metropolitan areas mirrored the statewide average, except in Houston, where the share was 7 percent. The share of Texas respondents who were not current and expected foreclosure to be either very likely or somewhat likely in the next two months grew to 27 percent in September, higher than the national rate of 22 percent (Table 3). The proportion of delinquent individuals who were at risk of foreclosure declined in North Texas, falling to 20 percent, while Houston’s metric shot up 26 percentage points to 44 percent. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s eviction moratorium for properties owned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the Enterprises) officially expired as of Sept. 30, 2021. Continued stability in the housing market is essential to Texas’ economic recovery.

________________

1 All measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month over month, unless stated otherwise.

2 Bond and mortgage interest rates are nonseasonally adjusted. Loan-to-value ratios, debt-to-income ratios, and the credit score component are also nonseasonally adjusted.

3 The release of Texas mortgage rate data typically lag the Texas Housing Insight by one month.

Source – James P. Gaines, Luis B. Torres, Wesley Miller, Paige Silva, and Griffin Carter (November

Source – James P. Gaines, Luis B. Torres, Wesley Miller, Paige Silva, and Griffin Carter (November 23, 2021)

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/Texas-Housing-Insight

, 2021)

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/Texas-Housing-Insight

October 2021 Stats Blog Graphic

October 2021 DFW Area Real Estate Stats

by Real Estate ArticlesResourcesStatsVideo

October 2021 North Texas real estate stats are out and we’ve got the numbers! Our stats infographics include a year over year comparison and area highlights for single family homes and condos broken down by MLS area. We encourage you to share these infographics and video with your sphere.

October 2021 stats alert! The third quarter of 2021 resembles much of the same across Collin, Dallas, Denton, Tarrant and Rockwall counties with active listings down about 30% and new listings down about 10%. The shortage of inventory remains here in North Texas. The number of sales in Dallas County was down 5.6% over last year, while in the other four counties they were down an average of 15% from 2020. Not surprisingly, the price per square foot in the metroplex continues to rise in all five counties with Collin County seeing the biggest increase up 29.1% over last year. It is a great time to be in the market in North Texas and we are thankful! 

For more stats information, pdfs and graphics of our stats including detailed information by MLS area and condo stats, visit the Resources section on our website at DFW Area Real Estate Statistics | Republic Title of Texas

For the full report from the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, click here. For NTREIS County reports click here.

Housing-Insight-August-2021

Texas Housing Insight – August 2021 Summary

by Real Estate ArticlesResourcesStats

Texas housing sales slowed in August, trending downward as supply remained constrained. Despite lowered mortgage interest rates, double-digit home-price appreciation chipped away at housing affordability. Elevated levels of demand persisted as homes averaged less than a month on the market. On the supply side, single-family housing permits declined for the third consecutive month, and housing starts decelerated even as pandemic effects on the lumber supply improved, causing a precipitous fall in prices; other material costs remained elevated. The historically low level of inventory available for sale is the greatest challenge to Texas’ housing market. The state’s diverse and expanding economy, favorable business policies, and steady population growth, however, support a favorable outlook.     

Supply1

The Texas Residential Construction Cycle (Coincident) Index, which measures current construction activity, elevated nationally and within Texas due to improved industry wages and construction values, while employment flattened during August. The Texas Residential Construction Leading Index, however, decreased as weighted building permits flattened and residential starts decreased, while the ten-year real Treasury bill increased. The leading index trended downward, signaling a potential slowdown in future activity. Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) and Austin’s weighted building permits reflected the statewide fluctuations as residential starts decreased in both metros. DFW leading index decreased, while Austin’s metric flattened. Houston and San Antonio’s indexes, however, suggested steady construction in the coming months as building permits and residential starts increased.

Single-family construction permits declined for the third consecutive month, falling 7.9 percent in August. Houston topped the national list for six straight months with 4,202 nonseasonally adjusted permits despite registering a seasonally adjusted decrease. DFW posted a double-digit monthly decline to 3,389 permits. Meanwhile, Austin and San Antonio issued 1,947 and 1,279 permits, respectively. On the other hand, Texas’ multifamily sector registered a steep expansion as issuance shifted from two-to-four units to five-or-more units. The metric accelerated 41.0 percent on a monthly basis and 22.6 percent year to date (YTD) relative to the same period last year.

Despite strengthening economic conditions and ample housing demand, total Texas housing starts remained unchanged even as lumber prices declined 19.5 percent in August. Single-family private construction values, however, declined 6.6 percent in real terms as the metric trended downward in Texas’ major metros. The majority of the statewide reduction was attributed to the steep plummet in DFW values during August.

Texas’ months of inventory (MOI) ticked up slightly to 1.5 months as sales activity and new listings decreased. A total MOI around six months is considered a balanced housing market. Supply improved across all price cohorts for the third consecutive month. Inventory for homes priced between $300,000 and $399,000, the most expansive price, grew to 1.6 months, while the MOI for luxury homes (those priced more than $500,000) increased to 2.5 months.

Inventory in the major metros increased, except in North Texas, where MOI declined slightly to 1.2 months in Dallas and Fort Worth. Supply remained the most constrained in Austin at 0.9 months. San Antonio inventory expanded to 1.7 months while Houston’s MOI expanded to 1.8 months. Although overall supply increased in August, limited inventory persisted as a major headwind to the health of Texas’ housing market.

Demand

Total housing sales decreased 0.9 percent in August for the third consecutive month despite lowered mortgage interest rates. The slowdown was attributed to record low activity for homes priced less than $200,000 due to dwindling inventories. On the other hand, the number of homes sold priced more than $400,000 reached an all-time high.

Housing sales decreased at the metropolitan level except in North Texas. Reflecting statewide fluctuations across the price spectrum, San Antonio total sales declined 1.8 percent. In Houston, the metric dropped 1.5 percent, while activity in Austin contracted 0.8 percent. On the other hand, sales accelerated in Dallas and Fort Worth, increasing 1.1 and 4.1 percent, respectively, amid strong gains for homes priced between $400,000 and $499,000.

Texas’ average days on market (DOM) fell to a record-breaking 27 days, confirming robust demand and that the YTD decrease in sales was due to restricted inventory. Austin’s DOM increased slightly to 18 days, while the average in North Texas decreased, selling after an average of just 20 days in Fort Worth and 21 days in Dallas. San Antonio and Houston’s metric registered declines but hovered closer to the statewide average, falling to 26 and 29 days, respectively. 

Amid low expectations of additional fiscal and monetary stimulus, economic growth forecasts for the rest of the year cooled as the initial and strongest stage of recovery likely reached its peak, and inflation pressures are believed to be temporary. The ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield ticked down for the fourth consecutive month to 1.3 percent2, while the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate fell to 2.8 percent. The median mortgage rate for the typical Texas homebuyer decreased in July3 to 3.1 and 3 percent for GSE and nonGSE loans, respectively. As mortgage rates dropped, Texas home-purchase applications increased over the past two months but fell 17.5 percent YTD. Refinance applications improved on a monthly basis yet were still down 12.2 percent over the same period. The annual decreases were likely due to baseline effects after a surge of remodeling and refinancing in 2020. Lenders adding more requisites, and the shrinking pool of households able to refinance is likely impacting refinance activity as well. (For more information, see Finding a Representative Interest Rate for the Typical Texas Mortgagee.)

In July, the median loan-to-value ratio (LTV) constituting the “typical” Texas conventional-loan mortgage dropped from 85.8 a year ago to 84.1. The debt-to-income ratio (DTI) was down from 36.0 to 35.8, while the median credit score increased only three points in the last year to 752. The LTV GSE borrowers also decreased from 86 last July to 85.4; however, DTI grew from 35.5 to 35.8. Overall improved credit profiles reflected the fact that only the most qualified housing applicants were able to outbid their competition for their desired homes amid exceptionally tight inventories and robust demand.

Prices

The ongoing shift in the composition of sales toward higher-priced homes due to constrained inventories at the lower end of the market supported home-price appreciation. The Texas median home price rose for the eighth consecutive month, accelerating 1.2 percent on a monthly basis and 16.8 percent YOY to a record-breaking $305,400 in August. The share of luxury homes sold in Austin continued to expand, contributing to the 34.6 percent YOY surge in the median price ($464,900). The Dallas metric ($374,200) increased 18.4 percent while annual price growth in Fort Worth ($312,600) shot up to 20.1 percent. Houston’s ($301,700) and San Antonio’s ($289,500) metrics elevated 15.5 and 16.1 percent, respectively.

The Texas Repeat Sales Home Price Index accounts for compositional price effects and provides a better measure of changes in single-family home values. Texas’ index corroborated substantial and unsustainable home-price appreciation, accelerating 18.3 percent YOY. At the metropolitan level, the repeat sales index slowed in the major metros, except Houston, as annual price growth reached a peak. The metric decelerated 38.5 percent in Austin, followed by North Texas with 23 and 20.3 percent home-price appreciation in Dallas and Fort Worth, respectively. San Antonio posted an 18.1 percent annual hike, while Houston’s index accelerated 15.2 percent. Increasing home prices pressure housing affordability, particularly in an environment of low real wage growth.

Single-Family Forecast

The Texas Real Estate Research Center projected single-family housing sales using monthly pending listings from the preceding period (Table 1). Only one month in advance was projected due to uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic and the availability of reliable and timely data. Texas sales are expected to recover 6.1 percent in September after three consecutive monthly declines. The metric is estimated to rebound 6.9 and 5.6 percent in Austin and San Antonio, respectively, with additional increases of 7.1 percent in DFW and 4.8 percent in Houston. Sales through September 2021 should accelerate relative to the same time period in 2020. On the supply side, inventories reached a trough in May 2021 and should improve in the coming months. Listings seem to have reached a trough and are rising, easing some of the price pressures. (For more information, see the 2021 Mid-Year Texas Housing & Economic Outlook.)

Household Pulse Survey

According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey, the share of homeowners behind on their mortgage payments increased to 6 percent nationally and 7 percent in Texas (Table 2). Houston reflected the national average, while the metric in DFW hovered higher at 9 percent. The share of Texas respondents who were not current and expected foreclosure to be either very likely or somewhat likely in the next two months rose from 14 percent in June to 19 percent (Table 3). The proportion of delinquent individuals at risk of foreclosure also grew in North Texas, increasing from 11 to 21 percent, and increasing 6 percentage points to 18 percent in Houston. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s foreclosure and REO eviction moratoria for properties owned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the Enterprises) were extended through Sept. 30, 2021. Continued stability in the housing market is essential to Texas’ economic recovery.

________________

1 All measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month over month, unless stated otherwise.

2 Bond and mortgage interest rates are nonseasonally adjusted. Loan-to-value ratios, debt-to-income ratios, and the credit score component are also nonseasonally adjusted.

3 The release of Texas mortgage rate data typically lag the Texas Housing Insight by one month.

Source – James P. Gaines, Luis B. Torres, Wesley Miller, Paige Silva, and Griffin Carter (October 26, 2021)

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/Texas-Housing-Insight

Slide1

September 2021 DFW Area Real Estate Stats

by Real Estate ArticlesResourcesStatsVideo

September 2021 North Texas real estate stats are out and we’ve got the numbers! Our stats infographics include a year over year comparison and area highlights for single family homes and condos broken down by MLS area. We encourage you to share these infographics and video with your sphere.

In reviewing Collin, Dallas, Denton, Rockwall, and Tarrant Counties, new listings were down in all counties except Rockwall. In Rockwall County, new listings were up by almost 10% over the same time last year. Active listings were down in September by almost 30%, which is slightly better than it was last month. The average days on market was 20 days, proving that lack of inventory is still a major factor for the real estate market in North Texas. However, the average sales prices and price per square foot are still up from last year. We are still enjoying a strong seller’s market in the DFW Metroplex! Happy Selling!

For more stats information, pdfs and graphics of our stats including detailed information by MLS area and condo stats, visit the Resources section on our website at DFW Area Real Estate Statistics | Republic Title of Texas

For the full report from the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, click here. For NTREIS County reports click here.

Spanish-Resources-blog-graphic

Spanish Resources

by Real Estate ArticlesResourcesTitle Information

Republic Title offers multiple real estate resources in Spanish for home buyers and sellers including:

The Closing Process / el Proceso de Venta

Republic Title – Who we are and why you need Title Insurance / Republic Title – Quienes somos y porque necesita una compania de titulus

Republic Title Locations / Ubicaciones de Republic Title

Important After Closing Reminders for Sellers / Importante Recordatorio Para Despues del cierre para el vandedor

Important After Closing Reminders for Buyers / Importante Recordatorio Para Despues Del cierre para el comprador

For more real estate resources, visit www.republictitle.com/residential-resources

Housing-Insight-July-2021

Texas Housing Insight – July 2021 Summary

by Real Estate ArticlesResourcesStats

Texas housing sales remained unchanged in July but trended downward amid limited supply of homes across all price cohorts. Despite decreases in mortgage interest rates, double-digit home-price appreciation chipped away at housing affordability. Elevated levels of demand persisted as homes averaged less than a month on the market. On the supply side, single-family housing permits declined for the second consecutive month, and housing starts decelerated even as lumber prices plummeted due to other material inputs keeping construction costs high. The historically low level of inventory available for sale is the greatest challenge to Texas’ housing market. The state’s diverse and expanding economy, favorable business policies, and steady population growth, however, support a favorable outlook.   

Supply1

The Texas Residential Construction Cycle (Coincident) Index, which measures current construction activity, inched up amid increased construction values and wages while employment flattened in the industry. The Residential Construction Leading Index (RCLI), normalized as residential starts flattened and weighted building permits decreased; the ten-year real Treasury bill also decreased. Weighted building permits and residential starts increased in Houston and San Antonio; however, the leading index ticked down in the former due to an overall downward trend while the metric increased in the latter. Meanwhile Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) and Austin indexes flattened as housing starts and building permits decreased in both metros.

Single-family construction permits declined for the second consecutive month in July, dropping 11 percent. Nevertheless, issuance exceeded its 2006 average and elevated 31.9 percent on a year-to-date (YTD) basis. Houston continued to lead the nation with 4,259 nonseasonally adjusted permits, followed by Dallas-Fort Worth at 4,174. Issuance in Austin decreased to 1,966 permits but remained well above pre-Great Recession levels. San Antonio’s metric remained unchanged, reporting 1,267 permits as the overall trend normalized over the past five months. Similar to single-family permits at the statewide level, monthly permits issued for multifamily properties sank 10.1 percent; year-over-year comparisons, however, were largely positive.

Material inputs remain costly due to supply-chain issues, but lumber prices fell 93.6 percent in July.  Consequently, total Texas housing starts decelerated 2.2 percent. Single-family private construction values decreased for the second straight month, declining 8 percent in real terms. Monthly fluctuations in Dallas and San Antonio reflected broader movements in the statewide metric, while Austin and Houston values normalized from record activity.

Housing supply remained at relatively low levels statewide, despite rising for two consecutive months as Texas’ months of inventory (MOI) increased to 1.5 months. Similarly, the MOI for homes priced less than $300,000 trended positively, increasing to 1.1 months. The two-month increase in inventory held across all price cohorts, rising from a trough in May. The MOI for luxury homes (homes priced more than $500,000) grew to 2.4 months but remained down 51 percent from 4.9 months a year ago. A total MOI of around six months is considered a balanced housing market.  

The MOI accelerated across the major metros, rebounding after a year-long decline. Houston’s MOI grew to 1.7 months. Dallas and Fort Worth increased supply to 1.2 months, and the MOI expanded in San Antonio and Austin to 1.6 and 0.8 months, respectively.

Demand

Total housing sales extended its negative trend, ticking down 0.3 percent amid reduced activity for homes prices less than $300,000. The sales composition continued to shift toward homes above that price point, accounting for 51 percent of transactions in July and signaling supply constraints at the lower price cohorts. Sales for homes priced less than $200,000 reached an all-time low as homes appreciated across the state.

Luxury home transactions registered double-digit YTD growth in the major Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) despite total sales trending downward. Home sales fell 1.8 and 1.2 percent in Austin and San Antonio, respectively. In North Texas and Houston, total sales reflected statewide fluctuations as significant decreases in new-home transactions offset incremental sales growth in the resale market.

Despite lackluster sales, Texas’ average days on market (DOM) fell to an all-time low of 28 days. Similarly, the DOM fell to record lows in all the major metros, corroborating robust demand as mortgage rates remained favorable to homebuyers. Homes on Austin’s Multiple Listing Service lasted an average of 14 days, while the Dallas and Fort Worth DOM averaged just over three weeks. Homes in Houston and San Antonio sold at a rate closer to the state measure, staying on the market for 31 and 29 days, respectively.

Amid low expectations of additional fiscal and monetary stimulus, economic growth forecasts for the rest of the year cooled as the initial and strongest stage of recovery likely reached its peak, and inflation pressures are believed to be temporary. The ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield fell to 1.32 percent, and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate decreased to 2.9 percent. Despite lower rates for borrowers, mortgage applications for home purchases continue to fall, declining 22.1 percent YTD. Mortgage rates remained low for the typical Texas homebuyer in June3, sinking to 3.03 percent for nonGSE loans, while the median interest rate for GSE loans was 3.11 percent. Texas home-purchase applications, however, declined for the fourth consecutive month in July, falling 22.1 percent YTD. Refinance applications improved on a monthly basis yet were still down 18.5 percent over the same period. (For more information, see Finding a Representative Interest Rate for the Typical Texas Mortgagee.)

Prices

The Texas median home price posted a new record high, decelerating 15.6 percent YOY to $301,900. Year-to-date (YTD) price growth was 15.9 percent in July, considerably more than last year’s YTD average of 7.1 percent. Three of the four major MSAs reached all-time highs in median home prices. The exception was Houston ($299,200) where the metric dipped just $1,600 from last month’s record high. Austin led the state with median price of $470,300, followed by Dallas at $370,600. The median price in Fort Worth ($306,300) and San Antonio ($286,700) rose $2,600 and $10,000, respectively.

The Texas Repeat Sales Home Price Index accounts for compositional effects and provides a better measure of changes in single-family home values. The index corroborated increased home-price appreciation, climbing 17.7 percent YOY. Houston’s metric rose by 14.1 percent, while Dallas and Fort Worth indexes grew 22.9 and 20.9 percent, respectively. Furthermore, the index in Austin soared 23.3 percent and accelerated 18.6 percent in San Antonio. Home-price appreciation unmatched by income improvement will continue to chip away at housing affordability.

Single-Family Forecast

The Texas Real Estate Research Center projected single-family housing sales using monthly pending listings from the preceding period (Table 1). Only one month in advance was projected due to the uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic and the availability of reliable and timely data. Texas sales are expected to normalize for the second straight month, dipping 0.7 percent in August.

The recovery in Dallas is predicted to surpass the state average as single-family sales improve 2.3 percent. The metric in Austin will likely be more subdued, but third quarter transactions should still exceed 3Q2020 levels. Sales activity is forecasted to decrease 1.3 and 2.1 percent in Houston and San Antonio, respectively.

On the supply side, inventory should improve slightly, reaching a trough in May, with the forecast predicting a rise in both active and new listings. Constrained inventory has curbed sales during the past few months. (For more information, see the 2021 Mid-Year Texas Housing & Economic Outlook.)

Household Pulse Survey

According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey, 6 percent of Texas homeowners were behind on their mortgage payments during July, slightly greater than the national share of 5 percent (Table 2). The metric within Texas’ largest metropolitan areas increased from last month to 6 and 7 percent in DFW and Houston, respectively. The share of Texas respondents who were not current and expected foreclosure to be either very likely or somewhat likely in the next two months, however, decreased 12 percentage points to 14 percent, just lower than the national rate of 15 percent (Table 3).

The proportion of delinquent individuals who were at risk of foreclosure decreased to 11 percent in North Texas and 12 percent in Houston. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s foreclosure and REO eviction moratoriums for properties owned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac are currently extended through Sept. 30, 2021. After the survey was taken, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention ended its federal eviction moratorium on Aug. 26, 2021. Continued stability in the housing market is essential to Texas’ economic recovery.

________________

1 All measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month over month, unless stated otherwise.

2 Bond and mortgage interest rates are nonseasonally adjusted. Loan-to-value ratios, debt-to-income ratios, and the credit score component are also nonseasonally adjusted.

3 The release of Texas mortgage rate data typically lag the Texas Housing Insight by one month.

 

Source – James P. Gaines, Luis B. Torres, Wesley Miller, Paige Silva, and Griffin Carter (September 24, 2021)

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/Texas-Housing-Insight

August 2021 DFW Area Real Estate Stats

by Real Estate ArticlesResourcesStatsVideo

August 2021 North Texas real estate stats are out and we’ve got the numbers! Our stats infographics include a year over year comparison and area highlights for single family homes and condos broken down by MLS area. We encourage you to share these infographics and video with your sphere.

August 2021 is a wrap and the stats are out!  In reviewing the five counties of Collin, Dallas, Denton, Rockwall and Tarrant, new listings were down an average of 4.48% compared to 2020, while active listings were down almost 33%.  The days on market averaged out to 16, proving once again that the lack of inventory is still a factor in North Texas.  What is up are the average sales prices and thus the price per square foot with the highest gain in Dallas county, up 58.2% from last year.  The numbers don’t lie, we are still enjoying a strong seller’s market in the DFW Metroplex!  Happy Selling!

For more stats information, pdfs and graphics of our stats including detailed information by MLS area and condo stats, visit the Resources section on our website at DFW Area Real Estate Statistics | Republic Title of Texas

For the full report from the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, click here. For NTREIS County reports click here.

Housing-Insight-June-2021

Texas Housing Insight – June 2021 Summary

by Real Estate ArticlesResourcesStats

Total Texas housing sales fell 2.0 percent during the second quarter as inventories remained relatively low in June. Most of the quarterly decline can be attributed to the lack of existing homes priced less than $400,000, offsetting elevated luxury-home sales in the resale market and overall growth in new-home sales. Texas’ homeownership rate decreased amid reduced housing affordability. Overall, housing demand remained healthy but was hindered by depleted inventories, pushing median home-price growth into double-digit territory for the year. Supply-side indicators surged in response to the unprecedented low level of inventory and remained positive compared with year-ago levels.

Supply1

The Residential Construction Cycle (Coincident) Index, which measures current construction levels, elevated nationally and within Texas due to improved industry wages, employment, and construction values during June. Construction activity is expected to remain strong in coming months as indicated by the Texas Residential Construction Leading Index (RCLI), which rose to a record high amid elevated weighted building permits and housing starts as well as a decrease in the ten-year real Treasury bill yield. Although the RCLI indicated strong future activity, the trend flattened as growth rates in building permits and housing starts decelerated. Austin’s leading index reflected statewide fluctuations and similarly reached an all-time high. Houston and San Antonio’s indexes increased, despite issuing fewer building permits. The indexes in the North Texas metros flattened as weighted building permits and residential starts decreased.

According to Zonda, supply-side activity surged at the earliest stage of the construction cycle with a 21.0 percent quarterly increase in the number of new vacant developed lots (VDLs). Austin accounted for most of the gains as VDLs intended for homes selling for more than $400,000 doubled. Development also soared in San Antonio as activity heated up for lots targeted for homes priced between $300,000 and $399,000. New VDLs picked up for the second straight quarter in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) despite reduced investment in homes priced more than $500,000. Conversely, Houston’s lot development remained flat mainly due to depressed activity at the bottom of the price spectrum.   

Quarterly fluctuations in single-family construction permits reflected movements in VDLs, although the metric receded 6.1 percent on a monthly basis, flattening the trend after a year-long rise. Houston and DFW topped the national list at the metropolitan level and accounted for most of the state’s improvement, issuing 4,789 and 4,627 non-seasonally adjusted permits, respectively. In Central Texas, permits staggered in June but trended upward after strong quarterly growth. Austin issued 2,346 single-family permits, while San Antonio issued 1,270. Meanwhile, Texas’ multifamily sector registered a surge in issuance as investment shifted from duplexes, triplexes, and four-unit structures to five-or-more units. The multifamily metric remained up 13.5 percent year to date (YTD) relative to the same period last year.

Even as lumber price remained at historically elevated levels, total Texas housing starts increased after stalling during the first quarter. Zonda data revealed roughly 36,800 homes broke ground in the Texas Triangle in 2Q2021, pushing single-family housing starts up 7.2 percent on a quarterly basis amid strengthening economic conditions and robust housing demand. Housing starts in North Texas reached an all-time high, increasing 14.5 percent from last quarter. Activity increased in Houston and San Antonio for homes priced more than $300,000 but slowed in Austin for similarly priced homes.

Single-family private construction values fell from last month’s record high as the metric trended downward in all of Texas’ major metros except San Antonio. Values there normalized quarter over quarter (QOQ). Austin’s single-family construction contracted 1.6 percent.  Despite the downward trend, activity in Houston and DFW expanded 6.6 and 2.5 percent QOQ, respectively.

The number of homes added to Texas Multiple Listing Services ticked up in June after falling to historical lows.  Sales, however, declined as home prices continued to climb, nudging Texas’ months of inventory (MOI) up to just 1.3 months. A total MOI around six months is considered a balanced housing market. Inventory for homes priced less than $300,000 remained hyper-constrained, dropping to 0.9 months. Meanwhile, the MOI for homes priced between $400,000 and $499,999, the price range at which inventory was at its most expansive, expanded to 2.1 months.

Supply in the major metros was even more constrained, although inventories expanded slightly. Austin’s MOI rose to half a month, while the metric in North Texas and San Antonio flattened to 1.0 and 1.2 months, respectively. Although Houston’s overall MOI was greater than the state average at 1.4 months, inventory for homes priced less than $300,000 slipped below 0.8 months. Depleted inventory is a major headwind to the continued health of Texas’ housing market.

Demand

Sales slowed in June amid ongoing inventory constraints, marking the fifth consecutive quarterly decline as total housing sales fell 2.0 percent QOQ. Activity for homes priced less than $400,000 offset quarterly growth of 11.5 percent in the luxury-home sector. Although the overall decrease occurred in all major metros, only San Antonio and Dallas posted quarterly contractions below the state average.

In contrast to decreased quarterly sales in the existing-home market, Zonda data revealed positive sales growth in three of the major metros’ new-home sectors. New-home sales in Austin, however, tumbled 14.9 percent to 4,936 sales, marking the second consecutive quarterly decline despite accelerated activity for homes priced more than $400,000. New-home sales in North Texas and Houston grew 5.2 and 3.9 percent QOQ, respectively, even as transactions diminished for homes priced less than $300,000. San Antonio’s metric climbed 2.2 percent QOQ.  

Amid recovering economic conditions and overall robust sales activity, Texas’ homeownership rate declined to 63.6 percent, 1.8 percentage points below the U.S. rate, per the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey. Nationally, homeownership improved for white households but decreased for minority households and householders between the ages of 35 and 44 years. Metro-level homeownership rates exceeded the national average only in Austin and Houston, where they improved to 65.4 and 66.0 percent, respectively. The metric fell in North Texas and San Antonio to 61.5 and 57.2 percent, respectively. Homeownership rates may continue depressed in the coming months as COVID-19 foreclosure-protection policies expire.

Texas’ average days on market (DOM) continued to trend downward, reaching a record low of 30 days. The historically low DOM indicated robust housing demand as sales decreased because of limited supply. Austin’s DOM shed almost six weeks off its year-ago reading, plummeting to an average of 15 days, while homes in North Texas sold after an average of just 22 and 23 days in Fort Worth and Dallas, respectively. San Antonio and Houston’s metrics also registered steep declines but hovered closer to the statewide average, falling to 30 and 33 days, respectively. All of the major metros experienced record lows in their average DOM, corroborating strong housing demand.

Amid low expectations of additional fiscal and monetary stimulus, economic growth forecasts for the rest of the year cooled as the initial and strongest stage of recovery likely reached its peak, and inflation pressures are believed to be temporary. The ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield decreased to 1.5 percent after hovering at pre-pandemic levels of 1.6 percent2 for three consecutive months, but the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate ticked up to 2.98 percent. The median mortgage rate within Texas held steady in May3 at 3.2 and 3.0 percent for GSE and non-GSE loans, respectively, but, similar to the national headline metric, remained below year-ago levels. Texas home-purchase applications declined for the third consecutive month in June, falling 25.4 percent YTD, and refinance applications declined 31.8 percent over the same period. Lenders adding more requisites and the shrinking pool of households able to refinance are likely impacting refinance activity. (For more information, see Finding a Representative Interest Rate for the Typical Texas Mortgagee.)

In May, the median loan-to-value ratio (LTV) constituting the “typical” Texas conventional-loan mortgage dropped from 88.3 a year ago to 83.3. The debt-to-income ratio (DTI) declined from 37.2 to 34.9, while the median credit score jumped 17 points in the last year to 756. The LTV and DTI for GSE borrowers decreased from 87.3 and 36.0 last April to 84.9 and 35.2, respectively. Overall improved credit profiles reflect the fact that only the most qualified housing applicants are able to outbid their competition for their desired homes amid exceptionally tight inventories and robust demand.

Prices

The Texas median home price rose for the sixth consecutive month, accelerating 19.3 percent YOY to a record-breaking $298,013 in June. The ongoing compositional sales shift toward higher-priced homes contributed to a higher median price. The share of luxury-homes sold in Austin more than doubled to two-fifths compared with the same time last year, contributing to the 43.2 percent YOY surge in the median price ($465,900). The Dallas metric ($364,400) increased 22.0 percent, while annual price growth in Fort Worth ($305,100) shot up to 21.7 percent after 23.6 percent growth the previous month. Houston ($301,000) and San Antonio’s ($279,300) metrics elevated 19.4 and 15.7 percent, respectively.

The Texas Repeat Sales Home Price Index accounts for compositional price effects and corroborated substantial and unsustainable home-price appreciation as the index soared 13.3 percent YOY. The metric skyrocketed 36.0 percent in Austin, followed by North Texas with annual home-price appreciation at 16.7 and 15.3 percent in Dallas and Fort Worth, respectively. San Antonio posted a 12.9 percent annual hike, while Houston’s index registered double-digit growth for the first time since the series started in 2014, elevating 10.2 percent. Rapid price growth outpaced wage gains, adding additional pressure to housing affordability.

Single-Family Forecast

The Texas Real Estate Research Center updated its forecasts for 2021 and 2022 single-family housing sales (Table 1). Forecasts are subject to change due to the uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic and the availability of reliable and timely data. Texas sales are expected to increase 5.5 percent in 2021. The housing market will continue to be characterized by strong demand with low inventories accompanied by strong price growth. Only sales in Houston and San Antonio are expected to exceed the state’s forecast, increasing 7.4 and 6.1 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, single-family sales in Austin and North Texas will likely normalize around 4.8 and 2.6 percent, respectively. Inventories of homes priced less than $300,000 will be especially low, affecting sales in that price range. Inventories should improve in the coming months as listings seem to have reached a trough and are rising, easing some of the price pressures.

Even with shortages of labor, appliances, lumber, and other construction materials driving up prices, new-home construction should register strong positive growth in 2021. The supply bottlenecks faced by homebuilders are anticipated to be resolved in the latter part of this year or next.

Economic growth and demographic trends, such as aging millennials and out-of-state migration, will help drive Texas housing demand in the remainder of 2021 and into 2022.

For 2022, expect the supply of homes for sale to increase and housing demand to remain relatively strong. This will help balance the market and slow home-price growth. Mortgage rates could be somewhat higher in 2022 than 2021 because of changes in the Fed’s monetary policy and because of inflationary pressures. If 2021’s high price growth is added to rising mortgage rates, demand should weaken in 2022. Affordability will continue to be an issue for buyers looking to purchase starter homes less than $300,000. In some regions, it will worsen as sharp increases in land, labor, and material costs make it difficult to build homes in that price range profitably.

Delinquencies and foreclosures will probably increase once forbearance ends in the fall of 2021. Both have been kept low due to government policies, but they are no longer seen as major issues facing the housing market because of the recovery in the labor market and government transfers benefiting households that in the past couldn’t make their mortgage payments on time. Also, given the lack of homes available for sale, the market could absorb an increased number of homes in delinquency or foreclosure. These homes could possibly be sold with a gain even before they enter into foreclosure. (For more information, see 2021 Mid-Year Texas Housing & Economic Outlook.)

Household Pulse Survey

According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey, the share of Texas homeowners behind on their mortgage payments increased to 6 percent in June (Table 2). The metric within Texas’ largest metropolitan areas, however, decreased below the statewide average to 5 percent in Houston and DFW. The share of Texas respondents who were not current and expected foreclosure to be either very likely or somewhat likely in the next two months grew to 26 percent in June, higher than the national rate of 19 percent (Table 3). The proportion of delinquent individuals who were at risk of foreclosure declined in North Texas and Houston, falling to 19 and 13 percent, respectively. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s foreclosure and REO eviction moratoria for properties owned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the Enterprises) was extended through September 30, 2021. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention renewed its federal eviction moratorium through the third quarter (October 3, 2021). Continued stability in the housing market is essential to Texas’ economic recovery.

________________

1 All measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month over month, unless stated otherwise.

2 Bond and mortgage interest rates are non-seasonally adjusted. Loan-to-value ratios, debt-to-income ratios, and the credit score component are also non-seasonally adjusted.

3 The release of Texas mortgage rate data typically lags the Texas Housing Insight by one month.

Source – James P. Gaines, Luis B. Torres, Wesley Miller, Paige Silva, and Griffin Carter (August 26, 2021)

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/Texas-Housing-Insight

July 2021 Stats Blog Header

July 2021 DFW Area Real Estate Stats

by Real Estate ArticlesResourcesStatsVideo

July 2021 North Texas real estate stats are out and we’ve got the numbers! Our stats infographics include a year over year comparison and area highlights for single family homes and condos broken down by MLS area. We encourage you to share these infographics and video with your sphere.

New listings are staying on par with where they were in July 2020, in Collin, Dallas, and Denton counties, down just slightly. However, in Rockwall and Tarrant listings are up an average of about 10%. The average sales prices across all five counties have risen to an average of about 20% above last years’ listing prices. The numbers don’t lie, the summertime market in North Texas is still hot!

For more stats information, pdfs and graphics of our stats including detailed information by MLS area and condo stats, visit the Resources section on our website at https://www.republictitle.com/residential-resources/

For the full report from the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, click here. For NTREIS County reports click here.

Home Seller Guide Digital Flipbook Version

Home Seller’s Guide

by Real Estate ArticlesResourcesTitle Information

Home Seller’s Guide Digital Flipbook – Republic Title

We are excited to introduce our new Home Seller’s Guide that is available as a luxury printed booklet or as a digital download. Our Home Seller’s Guides have everything that you need to know for a smooth home selling process. Our Home Seller’s Guide includes information on:

  • Who is Republic Title and Why You Need Title Insurance
  • 7 Benefits of Using a REALTOR
  • Staging Your Home to Sell
  • Lingo You Should Know
  • Home Selling Road Map
  • Types of Closings
  • Avoiding Common Closing Delays
  • What to Expect on Closing Day
  • After Closing Reminders
  • Moving Checklists
  • Republic Title Locations

To view the digital version of the Home Seller’s Guide, visit our website. For a list of more Seller Resources, visit the Seller Resources page on our website. If you are interested in getting printed versions, please reach out to your business development representative.

 

Buying a home is the largest transaction most of us will make in our lives and Republic Title is proud to be the smart option for protecting your property rights.