Texas-Housing-Insight-June-2023

Texas Housing Insight June 2023 Summary

by Real Estate ArticlesResourcesStats

Contrary to investors’ fears, the “housing bubble” did not burst. Instead, a harmonious decline in both supply and demand has struck a balance, resulting in a boost to the housing median price. Throughout the first half of 2023, Texas’ median price has consistently shown a 0.3-0.4 percent growth every month. Due to current owners’ reluctance to sell their existing property, the demand for new construction has significantly increased. This preference shift led to a swift climb in the market share of new construction, which surpassed 20 percent in June. 

Active Listings  Rebound for First Time in Eight Months

The number of active listings rose for the first time since November 2022, reaching 82,064 units after a 3.9 percent month-over-month (MOM) growth. However, none of the Big Four metros recorded a positive monthly gain. The boost of available homes primarily came from the smaller housing markets, such as El Paso, Killeen, Midland, and Texarkana. The number of new listings increased by 6.7 percent to 40,800 units, accounting for half of active listings. All major metros bucked the trend of acceleration with growth ranging from 3.3 percent to 8.9 percent. Correspondingly, months of inventory (MOI) had a marginal gain of 0.1 months.

Regarding the upcoming inventories, Texas’ single-family construction permits had their second decline in three months, dropping by 2 percent in June. While the number of permit applications has significantly shrunk from the frenzy of applications during the pandemic, permit issuance seems to be returning to the ten-year trend before the pandemic.

At the metro level, Houston had the largest demand for permits with 4,500 issuances in June, maintaining the same level as in May. Dallas and Austin both had a mid-single-digit reduction, falling to 3,480 and 1,040 units, respectively. In contrast, San Antonio’s permit demand was rising this year, jumping from 500 units in January to 840 units in June. Permit demand remains significant in the Texas housing market.

Despite the fall in permits, single-family construction starts rose for the third consecutive month to 11,240 units. Both Dallas and Houston had more than 3,500 houses break ground, surpassing the combined total of other metros outside the “Big Four.” While the number of home projects in Austin (1,540 starts) outpaced San Antonio (804 starts), the gap has gradually narrowed as permit demand accelerated in San Antonio. The overall trend indicates a positive momentum in the Texas single-family construction market.

The state’s total single-family starts value reached $15.9 billion year-to-date (YTD), indicating a decline from $23.2 billion recorded in 2022. Houston and Dallas continue to account for more than half of the state’s construction activity values. Dallas’ share of the Texas market rose to 27.5 percent, coming close to Houston’s share of 28 percent. 

Housing Market for New Construction Is Booming

As mortgage rates remain elevated, homebuyer demand has decreased, leading to a drop in Texas’ total home sales, which fell below 28,000 transactions in June (Table 1). This represented a decline of 3.2 percent MOM and 11.8 percent year over year (YOY). Among the four major metros that reported fewer monthly sales, Austin declined the most with a double-digit reduction.

 

Despite the challenge of high mortgage rates and reduced housing demand, the market share of new construction sales surged. Within a year, the share of new construction sales rose from 16.3 percent to more than 20 percent, indicating every five closed listings is a new home. Both demand and supply factors contributed to the increasing trend for new homes. The shortage of existing homes is due to current owners’ reluctance to give up their current homes, while the state’s consistent home demand, fueled by a growing population, is spurring new construction orders.

Texas’ average days on market (DOM) stayed at 56 for the second straight month, deviating from the steep rebounding trend observed for over a year. The current reading is merely three days short of the five-year average before 2020, which stood at 59 days. The consistent reading suggests that the housing market may have reached a state of equilibrium. Among the major metros, Austin and San Antonio both reported a DOM of 71 days, while Dallas and Houston had DOM figures of 52 days and 49 days, respectively.

Steady and Modest Price Gains Amid Sales Volatility

Texas’ median home prices continued to show its strength by increasing 0.3 percent to $337,900 (Table 2). Austin recorded the largest monthly gain of 4.2 percent, reaching a price peak in the past nine months. The remaining three metros recorded changes of less than 1 percent.

Despite Austin’s price hike in June, this metro was still close to 10 percent below last year’s record high, facing the largest price gap. Meanwhile, Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio had less than 5 percent to bridge. These price drops indicate the real estate industry still has room to recover from the price correction observed in the second half of 2022.

The Texas Repeat Sales Home Price Index, which accounts for compositional price effects and provides a better measure of change in single-family home values, showed a slight advance of 0.3 percent MOM and 0.1 percent YOY. Houston had the highest annual appreciation with 1.6 percent YOY increase, while Austin remained balanced with no YOY changes.

Mortgage rates typically follow Treasury rates, and both increased in June. The ten-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield grew 18 basis points, reaching 3.8 percent. Likewise, the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate increased moderately to 6.7 percent, up 28 basis points. With the Fed resuming their increasing of interest rates in July, both the bond and the mortgage rates also grew.

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* All measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month over month, unless stated otherwise.

Source – Joshua Roberson, Weiling Yan, and Koby McMeans (August 15, 2023)

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/Texas-Housing-Insight

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June 2023 DFW Area Real Estate Stats

by ResourcesStatsVideo

The Dallas real estate market has seen fluctuations in different counties, as of the latest available data. In Collin County, new listings have declined by 21.5%, with closed sales down by 3.7%, and the median sales price experiencing a 5.1% decrease. Similarly, Dallas County has witnessed a decline of 19.3% in new listings, a significant drop of 12.1% in closed sales, and a minor decrease of 0.8% in the median sales price.

Denton County, on the other hand, has experienced a decrease of 19.7% in new listings, while closed sales have surprisingly increased by 1.2%. However, the median sales price in Denton County has still seen a downturn of 1.2%. Tarrant County has seen the steepest decline in new listings at 22.6%, coupled with a significant drop of 10.2% in closed sales and a median sales price decrease of 4.3%. Lastly, Rockwall County has experienced a substantial decline of 25.2% in new listings, a notable drop of 19.5% in closed sales, and a 2.2% decrease in the median sales price.

Overall, these statistics indicate varying trends in the Dallas real estate market, with some counties witnessing significant declines in both new listings and closed sales, while others show mixed results. The changes in median sales prices are also noteworthy, showcasing the complexities and challenges the local real estate market is currently facing. As the market continues to evolve, it will be essential for potential buyers and sellers to stay informed with the most up-to-date data and trends from Realtor professionals to make informed decisions in this dynamic environment.

Our stats infographics include a year over year comparison and area highlights for single family homes broken down by county. We encourage you to share these infographics and video with your sphere.

For more stats information, pdfs and graphics of our stats including detailed information by county, visit the Resources section on our website at DFW Area Real Estate Statistics | Republic Title of Texas.

For the full report from the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, click here. For NTREIS County reports click here.

Texas-Housing-Insight-May-2023

Texas Housing Insight May 2023 Summary

by Real Estate ArticlesResourcesStats

Texas had an uptick in home sales in May. At the same time the level of active listings continued to drop, resulting in shorter market times to sell and price growth. The market time shrunk for the first time since March 2022, now standing at 56 days. The median price has steadily increased by 0.4 percent each month this year but is still $15,000 short of the record high level from a year ago.

Supply* Recedes after the Two-Year Boom

Single-family construction permits moderately declined less than one percent from the previous month to 12,305 units. Dallas and Houston both showed massive changes with Dallas declining by 13.3 percent to 3,159 permits, while Houston surpassed its 2022 building permits by 5.8 percent to 4,546 permits. The issuance difference ballooned quickly from 136 permits in April to more than 1,300 permits in May. Austin and San Antonio moderately changed with Austin rising by 4.3 percent to 1,068 units, while San Antonio decreased by 8.8 percent to 684 units. The split between the four major metros was the cause for Texas’ moderate decrease in May.

Single-family construction starts rose for the second month to 10,725 units in May. Despite the recent rebound, the number of construction starts shrank more than 20 percent compared with a year ago. Dallas recorded the only increase this month in the Texas Triangle with a 6.2 percent increase to 7,258 units. Construction generally hits a seasonal low in winter and peaks in spring or summer.

The state’s total single-family starts value reached $12.8 billion in May, a decline from $19.7 billion recorded in 2022. Investment value contracted in all four major metros, with Houston suffering the largest loss. The energy hub had a substantial 39.1 percent decrease in single-family starts value from January to May compared with the previous year. This was equivalent to a net loss of $2.3 billion worth of real estate investment. While the housing market underwent a cooldown, the rental market displayed Texans’ consistent need for extra space. Multifamily starts value inched up by 3.1 percent year-to-date (YTD), and Dallas and Houston—the two most populated metros—contributed mostly to the growth.

The number of active listings continued its downward trajectory, reaching 79,278 units, representing a decrease of just over 1 percent from the previous month. The big four metros recorded the largest drops in listings while the rest of Texas counteracted their decrease that kept the statewide change at only a slight decrease from April 2023. The number of new listings increased just over 2 percent to 37,812 units, with Houston accounting for the only increase. Months of Inventory (MOI) dipped to 2.6 months. This trend is in large part due to Dallas and Houston’s MOI decreasing by 8 percent and 19 percent, respectively.

Housing Market Sees Shortened Sale Time for First Time in 14 Months

Total home sales recovered half of the losses from April’s month-over-month (MOM) slump and expanded to 28,933 transactions, equivalent to a 5.3 percent MOM increase (Table 1). All four metropolitan areas experienced significant growth in sales volume. Austin showed the highest monthly elevation with a double-digit growth rate, catching up to San Antonio’s sales level with over 2,900 transactions. Houston had the second most impressive rate at 8.2 percent, bridging the gap between Dallas’ single-family transactions.

Sales in Houston rose across all price cohorts in May, with the most significant rises in the two tails—below $200,000 and above $750,000—both of which rose over 20 percent. However, compared with May 2022, sales for all price cohorts decreased, especially for homes priced over $300,000.

Texas’ average days on market (DOM) retreated for the first time since March 2022, falling three days to 56, straying away from the historical norms rate that it was approaching. Compared with the five-year average of 59 days before 2020, the lack of available homes in the market is becoming more competitive for buyers as three out of the four major metros recorded a decrease in DOM. Dallas recorded the biggest drop to 51 DOM, over a 7 percent decrease from the previous month. Houston and San Antonio were the only two MSAs that did not record a downtick, as the readings balanced at 52 and 68 days, respectively.

Prices Make Steady, Small Gains Despite Volatility in Sales

Texas’ median home prices exhibited strength with consistent increases throughout the year. The price rose steadily by 0.4 percent every month since the beginning of 2023, progressing from $331,900 in January to $337,700 in May (Table 2).  Despite marginal downticks in Austin, Dallas, and San Antonio, growth in Houston along with the rest of the state maintained the state’s overall price growth.

Texas, as well as all four major metropolitan areas, experienced lower in median home prices compared with the previous year. Austin saw decreases of 15.3 percent, while Dallas, San Antonio, and Houston saw decreases of 5.9 percent, 4.4 percent, and 3 percent, respectively. These price drops indicate the real estate industry is still in the process of recovering from the price correction observed in the second half of 2022.

Because of the price correction, housing appreciation slowed. The Texas Repeat Sales Home Price Index accounts for compositional price effects and provides a better measure of change in single-family home values. The Texas index was mostly the same, gaining 0.1 percent year over year (YOY). The only metro with annual appreciation was Houston, which recorded a 1.5 percent YOY increase. Similar to the state’s median price trend, the four metros all recorded steady growth for the past five consecutive months.

Mortgage rates typically follow Treasury rates. The ten-year U.S. Treasury Bond yield grew 11 basis points MOM to reach 3.6 percent. Likewise, the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate increased moderately to 6.43 percent, up nine basis points from April.

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* All measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month over month, unless stated otherwise.

Source – Joshua Roberson, Weiling Yan, and Koby McMeans (July 11, 2023)

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/Texas-Housing-Insight

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May 2023 DFW Area Real Estate Stats

by ResourcesStatsVideo

Days on market have surged over 100% in each county we report on indicating that homes are selling far more slowly than they were in 2022. In Rockwall County, the average days on market is 62 days – that’s an increase of 226.3% over 2022. According to the Dallas Business Journal, Dallas-Fort Worth ranked fourth in the U.S. for the largest increase in days on market in May.  New listings are down across the board over 2022.  The demand for homes in North Texas is still robust and it remains a tough market for buyers. If you’re considering selling or know someone who is, now is the perfect moment to take advantage of the high demand!

Our stats infographics include a year over year comparison and area highlights for single family homes broken down by county. We encourage you to share these infographics and video with your sphere.

For more stats information, pdfs and graphics of our stats including detailed information by county, visit the Resources section on our website at DFW Area Real Estate Statistics | Republic Title of Texas.

For the full report from the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, click here. For NTREIS County reports click here.

Texas-Housing-Insight-March-2023

Texas Housing Insight March 2023 Summary

by Real Estate ArticlesResourcesStats

Construction had a great March as it made monumental leaps over February. Meanwhile, active listings dropped as sales continued to rise. Days on market (DOM) increased for yet another month, conflating with the fact that demand is slowing though still trending upward. However, too few existing homes are being put on the market to fill the void. Interest rates’ continued climb and an uncertain economic future were likely contributing factors to possible buyers holding onto their current homes. These factors continue to point to a cooling housing market.

Supply* Recedes as Construction Skyrockets

Single-family construction permits have continued increasing since February with 12,431 issued in March, a 23 percent month-over-month (MOM) improvement. All four major metros contributed to the statewide rise, as they all had positive gains for the month. Houston continued to lead the other metros with a 21.5 percent increase (4,616 permits) over last month’s already impressive growth. San Antonio replaced Austin as the metro with the lowest growth at 2.3 percent (605 permits).

Single-family construction starts recorded a strong count in March at 11,478. While nowhere near 2021 and 2022 levels, they are comparable to 2019, which was a strong year and a positive sign for the rest of 2023.  Construction generally hits a seasonal low in December and peaks in March or June.

The state’s total single-family starts value reached $7.1 billion in March, down from $12 billion in March 2022. Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth continue to account for over half of the state’s values, holding a combined 55 percent of the Texas market. Austin and San Antonio remained on par with previous years’ market percentage shares.

Demand Trends Upward as Sales Remain Strong

Housing demand started the year off strong with three consecutive months of seasonally adjusted sales growth. Total home sales gained 2.2 percent MOM reaching 30,610 (Table 1). Three of the four major metros have risen in monthly home sales, with Dallas being the only to have a drop, moving 97 fewer homes than the previous month. Houston was the metro with the largest monthly increase in March, reaching a 9.6 percent improvement. Austin and San Antonio lagged Houston and Dallas with sales of 2,738 and 3,103, respectively.  

As the metro with the most sales in Texas, Dallas had sales volumes that were consistent with 2022 across price cohorts. However, transactions for homes on the two tails—below $200K and above $750K—both shrank significantly. Transactions in the upper tail dropped to 805 units in March, falling more than 15 percent year-over-year.

Texas’ average DOM steadily advanced to 57 days. Compared with the five-year average of 59 days before 2020, the housing market is fast approaching historic norms. Houston’s homes seemed to be in the hottest market, reporting the lowest DOM level of 51.4 days. Austin’s DOM record kept inching up, marking 72.7 days this month, the longest market time since 2013. This is a major swing from the intense market conditions from just a year ago.

Amid the overall trend of continuously growing house inventories, active listings had their first major dip since March 2022. The 8 percent drop brought the count of available homes in Texas down to 83,497 units. While Austin ticked up 4.5 percent, Dallas dropped marginally. Due to March’s robust sales volumes in Houston and San Antonio, these two metros had a hard time quickly restocking. As a result, they had significant reductions of 8.5 percent and 11.3 percent, respectively. Despite the drop in housing inventories, months of inventory (MOI) resumed an upward trend at three months. The trend was largely sustained by Austin’s increasing MOI.

Prices Make Minimal Gains as Long-Term Rates Rise 

Texas’ median home price inched up 1 percent MOM, and the price was mainly unchanged from a year ago (Table 2). Austin had the greatest rebound of 6 percent since the price correction started in May 2022. Despite the recent improvement, Austin’s median price still fell $70K short of 2022’s market price, diminishing 15 percent. Other than Austin, the remaining three metros did not post drastic changes. Relatively, Houston’s and San Antonio’s housing prices were the most stable among the four major metros, with March prices staying in a reasonable range from the local markets’ peaks.

The ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield dipped nine basis points MOM to reach 3.6 percent. The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate reversed course as it climbed to 6.5 percent, the first increase since October 2022. 

Though mortgage rates remain high, sales have trended upward and continued through March. The Texas Repeat Sales Home Price Index accounts for compositional price effects and provides a better measure of changes in single-family home values. Texas’ index gained 1.9 percent MOM. Houston was the only metro whose index remained constant, while the four other major metros all had modest increases over February. These modest rises indicate price normalization.

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* All measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month over month, unless stated otherwise.

Source – Joshua Roberson, Weiling Yan, and John Shaunfield (May 26, 2023)

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/Texas-Housing-Insight

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April 2023 DFW Area Real Estate Stats

by ResourcesStatsVideo

In April, active listings have increased across all counties compared to last year. However, the demand is outpacing supply, and we need more inventory to meet the growing needs of homebuyers. Excitingly, the average price is slightly down from last year across our area, offering potential savings for home seekers. Moreover, days on market have decreased since last month, signaling a strengthening market and a sense of urgency for those looking to buy or sell.

Our stats infographics include a year over year comparison and area highlights for single family homes broken down by county. We encourage you to share these infographics and video with your sphere.

For more stats information, pdfs and graphics of our stats including detailed information by county, visit the Resources section on our website at DFW Area Real Estate Statistics | Republic Title of Texas.

For the full report from the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, click here. For NTREIS County reports click here.

Texas-Housing-Insight-February-2023

Texas Housing Insight February 2023 Summary

by Real Estate ArticlesResourcesStats

February’s housing market shows 2023 has returned to normal seasonal trends, something not experienced since 2019. Housing sales are back on trend with increases for the month, as are construction starts and permits. Rebounding to pre-pandemic levels means sales and construction activity are still decreased compared with the previous two years. This is likely due to inflated mortgage rates and high inflation. Days on market (DOM) increased across all major metros as inventory rose because of deflated demand. All of these factors point to a cooling housing market and a return to form.

Supply* Rises as Inventory Gains Ground

Single-family construction permits reversed their course for February, gaining significant ground with a 17 percent increase month over month (MOM). All four major metros contributed to the statewide rise, as they all had positive gains for February. Houston led the way with a 33 percent increase over last month (3,793 permits), while Austin lagged the rest with a 0.7 percent gain (1,160 permits).

Construction generally hits a seasonal low in December, and peaks in March or June. Single-family construction starts are following this trend with a seasonally adjusted MOM increase of almost 2 percent. December’s low point reached levels not seen since 2015, due in large part to the drastic increase in mortgage rates. March starts, around 9,200 according to Dodge Data & Analytics, pale in comparison to the previous two March levels, which were record-breaking peaks at the time.

The state’s total single-family starts value reached $4.3 billion in February, down from $7.5 billion in February 2022. Houston and Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) are responsible for more than half of that. Houston continues to account for the largest portion of Texas’ construction values with 29 percent of the market share. DFW accounts for 25 percent.  Austin and San Antonio remained on par with previous years’ market percentage shares.

February’s active listings continued their upward trend since March 2022 after having slowed in the past two months, when the metric fell to 91,000 units after seasonal adjustment. Although, these levels are still lower than pre-pandemic listing levels. Additionally, despite the small dip last month, months of inventory (MOI) returned to an upward trend as inventory levels reached three months. Austin’s MOI fell to just below three months. Dallas followed a similar trend, with MOI dropping to 2.2 months. Meanwhile, Houston and San Antonio bolstered the state with increases, raising the overall months of inventory.

Demand Increases as Sales and Prices Jump

Housing demand started the new year with an upward trend, as sales volume expanded for two consecutive months. Total home sales had a strong boost of 7.8 percent MOM, doubling last month’s 3.7 percent growth. Sales gained more than 2,000 transactions in a month, marching upward to a seasonally adjusted rate of 29,728 closings. Austin and Houston, the two metros that had their great rebound in January, stayed flat this month (Table 1). Meanwhile, Dallas and San Antonio spiked up. Dallas’ 17.1 percent growth brought more than 1,200 additional homes under contract in February.

Sales across all price cohorts continued to follow their normal seasonal cycle with sales increasing through all price cohorts. Homes in the $300K-$400K range remain at the epicenter of the market, making up 28 percent of Texas sales. This constitutes a 2 percent increase in market share for this price cohort over February 2022. DFW increased its market share by a similar 2 percent this month in the same cohort, as the other metros stayed on course with YOY market shares. Despite sales activity picking up, Texas’ average DOM steadily advanced four days in 2023 to 56 days. Compared with the five-year average of 59 days before 2020, the housing market is fast approaching historic norms. Austin posted a ten-year record of 71 days this month, the longest market time since 2013. This is a major swing from the intense market conditions from just a year ago.

Austin homes’ time on market uniformly lengthened across all price cohorts, while other metros had mixed trends. Among the homes valued above $400K, Austin’s DOM ranged from 57 to 69 days, at least ten days longer than the corresponding cohort in the DFW market. Houston homes in the $750K and above price cohort were in a hot market, staying on market only one day longer than homes below $200K.

Prices Flatten as Rates Remain High 

Texas’ median home price mostly stayed flat from the previous month, and only 0.6 percent higher than a year ago (Table 2). However, home prices did fall in Austin with 4.6 percent MOM and 12.2 percent YOY decreases. Dallas and San Antonio still saw low-single-digit price growth from a year ago.

The ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield reversed the dwindling trend and marched upward 22 basis points to 3.8 percent. The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate saw the fourth consecutive moderation since November, falling to 6.3 percent.

High mortgage rates have discouraged many homebuyers, driving demand down over the past year. The Texas Repeat Sales Home Price Index accounts for compositional price effects and provides a better measure of changes in single-family home values. Texas’ index gained 3.1 percent MOM. Austin stood out with an 8 percent YOY decrease. The other four metros had minor single-digit YOY increases, indicating possible price normalization.

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* All measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month over month, unless stated otherwise.

Source – Joshua Roberson, Weiling Yan, and John Shaunfield (April 19, 2023)

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/Texas-Housing-Insight

March 2023

March 2023 DFW Area Real Estate Stats

by ResourcesStatsVideo

March 2023 stats are in and we have the numbers! The North Dallas real estate market is seeing some interesting trends! Active listings in Collin, Denton, and Rockwall counties are up over 50% from last year, while the price per square foot has fallen across all counties. This means there are more options available for homebuyers looking to make a move in 2023. Interestingly enough, the list prices have fallen ever so slightly in all counties except Rockwall. Does this signal a shift to a more buyer-friendly market? Inventory will be the deciding factor, so stay tuned for stats this summer to see!

Our stats infographics include a year over year comparison and area highlights for single family homes broken down by county. We encourage you to share these infographics and video with your sphere.

For more stats information, pdfs and graphics of our stats including detailed information by county, visit the Resources section on our website at DFW Area Real Estate Statistics | Republic Title of Texas.

For the full report from the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, click here. For NTREIS County reports click here.

Texas-Housing-Insight-January-2023

Texas Housing Insight January 2023 Summary

by Real Estate ArticlesResourcesStats

January home sales increased month over month (MOM), but it was the slowest start since January 2017, a far cry from January levels from both 2021 and 2022. Other housing metrics, such as median price and inventory, may be showing early signs of stabilizing with only minor changes in recent months compared with the major swings experienced during the pandemic.

Supply1

Single-family construction permits had been sliding down in demand since March 2022. January 2023’s permit level fell 6.9 percent MOM to 8,897 permits. The other two months during the past three years that monthly permits dipped below 9,000 were during the initial pandemic shock in April and May 2020. Construction permits fell in all major metros except Austin. While housing demand in Houston (2,842 permits) was mostly flat, Dallas (2,249 permits) dropped more than 15 percent MOM. Austin’s monthly construction demand (1,082 permits) rebounded 10 percent, issuing twice as many permits as San Antonio (481 permits).

Texas single-family construction starts have likewise plummeted since March 2022 but started 2023 with a positive month in January with 9,090 units. Although construction starts rebounded in every major metro, the January metric was the lowest level reported in Texas since 2016, suggesting a meek outlook for the housing industry.

The state’s total single-family starts value diminished from $3.8 billion in January 2022 to $2.2 billion in 2023. Houston and Dallas continue to account for more than half of the states total, coming in at 27.5 percent and 26.1 percent, respectively. Further pressing the point home that housing activity is down from the previous year, Austin and San Antonio had their construction values nearly cut in half in the first month of 2023.

The rebound in active listings had been aggressive since March 2022. However, the acceleration slowed in the past two months as the metric fell flat at a seasonally adjusted rate of 91,000 units. Compared with the first half of 2022 when inventory was 50 percent short of pre-pandemic levels, housing inventory was only 4.5 percent short in January. Active listings in Austin have more than tripled from a year ago, reaching 8,500 units. Amid the recent flattening, months of inventory (MOI) dipped for the first time in the past eight months. The MOI for the four major metros ranged from 2.5 months to 3.4 months. While Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio all either hovered back or beyond pre-pandemic levels, Houston’s housing supplies still needed more homes to restock.

Demand

Total home sales inched up 3.4 percent MOM to a seasonally adjusted rate of 27,475 sales. This uptick marked the largest MOM jump since the second half of 2022. Sales in Austin and Houston rebounded greatly, with the former metro surpassing San Antonio’s sales volume and the latter surpassing Dallas’ (Table 1). While the housing market opened robustly in 2023, Texas’ sales still diminished by over 20 percent compared with last year’s January metric.

Sales grew across all price cohorts. While homes below $300K still make up 40 percent of the market, this sector’s sales volume rebounded least at 0.5 percent MOM. The remaining price cohorts ascended moderately at a low-single-digit growth, but homes above $750K grew at an impressive rate of 21.6 percent MOM, accounting for almost 9 percent of the market. 

With sales activity picking up, the Texas’ average days on market (DOM) continued to climb but at a slower pace of 54 days. Compared with the five-year average of 59 days before 2020, this is still converging to historic norms; and it is tilting toward a weaker market that favors buyers. Quadrupling since March 2022, Austin posted a first dip in DOM—balancing at 61 days.

Across all price cohorts except one, DOM rose to a range of 50 to 58 days, a three-day average increase across all the cohorts. The $400K-$500K housing sector’s DOM declined by 5.8 days over the previous month. Meanwhile, homes priced over $750K had a 55 DOM, one day higher than the $300K-$400K cohort.

Compared with a surge to 69 percent in 3Q2020 during the pandemic frenzy, Texas’ homeownership rate had been cooling, hovering around 63.6 percent in 2022. At the metropolitan level, the Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) area was lowest at 56 percent, while Houston was highest at 67 percent. Austin and San Antonio were at 65 and 60 percent, respectively.

Prices

Texas’ median home prices started off the new year with a strengthened housing market. The 2.1 percent MOM rebound was the largest monthly gain since April of last year. All metros posted positive price growth except for San Antonio (Table 2). Median price per square foot (PSF) corroborated with the trend, as San Antonio’s price PSF dropped 1.6 percent MOM to $168.8.

The ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield continued its four-month decline, reaching 3.5 percent2 in January 2023, while the two-year counterpart decreased to 4.2 percent. The spread between the ten- and two-year bond yields continued to widen for the seventh month straight. The negative spread indicated persistent market uncertainties, and the ten-year bond yield was still far below 2007’s peak of 5.1 percent. The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate moderated slightly this month to 6.3 percent, down 0.1 percent from December.

Rapidly rising mortgage rates have continued to pester the housing market over the past year. The Texas Repeat Sales Home Price Index accounts for compositional price effects and provides a better measure of changes in single-family home values. The January metric was essentially the same as the month before. However, January’s index value of 220 was still 3.9 percent higher than the year before. The same trend also affected the major metros as growth rates shrank from double to single digits, except in Austin, which had a net loss in home values.

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1 All measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month over month, unless stated otherwise.

2 Bond and mortgage interest rates are nonseasonally adjusted. 

Source – Joshua Roberson, Weiling Yan, and John Shaunfield (March 20, 2023)

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/Texas-Housing-Insight

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February 2023 DFW Area Real Estate Stats

by ResourcesStatsVideo

Attention home buyers and sellers! The February real estate stats are in and it’s important to stay informed. Active listings are up in every county compared to last year, providing more choices for home buyers. However, days on market are also up in every county, indicating a more competitive market for sellers. In Dallas County, new listings are down 7.4% from last year, but Collin County and Denton County are seeing an increase in new listings. It’s a unique moment in the housing market, so stay informed before making any decisions!

Our stats infographics include a year over year comparison and area highlights for single family homes broken down by county. We encourage you to share these infographics and video with your sphere.

For more stats information, pdfs and graphics of our stats including detailed information by county, visit the Resources section on our website at DFW Area Real Estate Statistics | Republic Title of Texas.

For the full report from the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, click here. For NTREIS County reports click here.