Slide1

January 2023 DFW Area Real Estate Stats

by ResourcesStatsVideo

January 2023 stats are in!

In January 2023, new listings are up in all North Texas counties that we report on over December 2022 so the much-needed inventory is coming to market.

Active listings are up across the board compared to this time last year ranging from 71% increase in Dallas County to 195% increase in Denton County. Compared to January 2022, average sales price has increased in each county except Denton which was down slightly.

Dallas is expected to be the top buyer’s market in the nation by year-end 2023 so all eyes are on the Spring selling season!

Our stats infographics include a year over year comparison and area highlights for single family homes broken down by county. We encourage you to share these infographics and video with your sphere.

For more stats information, pdfs and graphics of our stats including detailed information by county, visit the Resources section on our website at DFW Area Real Estate Statistics | Republic Title of Texas.

For the full report from the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, click here. For NTREIS County reports click here.

Texas-Housing-Insight-December2022

Texas Housing Insight December 2022 Summary

by Real Estate ArticlesResourcesStats

Housing was one of the primary contributors to inflation in 2022. The pandemic-induced housing frenzy officially ended when the Federal Reserve began raising interest rates in June in an attempt to curb inflation. Since then, mortgage rates and the possibility of a recession sidelined many potential buyers. Demand in Texas plummeted as annual housing sales fell more than 10 percent. Supplies started returning to pre-pandemic levels. Amid 2022’s drastic changes, many housing indicators improved as homebuilders and buyers quickly adapted.

Supply1

Homebuilders initiated fewer building projects than they did before the pandemic. Year-end single-family construction permits had a net loss of 8.4 percent year-over-year (YOY), shrinking from 170,557 permits to 156,189 permits in 2022. Monthly permits were flat in December, with fewer than 10,000 permits issued. Construction permits fell in all major metros. While housing demand in Dallas (2,786 permits) was mostly flat, Houston (2,886 permits)—the metro with the most construction permits in the nation—dipped 10 percent month-over-month (MOM). The gap between Austin’s (982 permits) and San Antonio’s (592 permits) housing expansion narrowed, as Austin’s monthly construction demand fell below 1,000 monthly permits for the first time since 2016.

Construction generally slows during the winter, and Texas’ single-family construction starts plummeted 33.5 percent from December 2021 to 10,203 units, corroborating a slowdown in the housing industry when accounting for the winter slump. According to Zonda, quarterly construction starts continued the fall from 3Q2022 in Texas’ four major metros except for Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW). While DFW’s construction starts rebounded 26.4 percent quarter-over-quarter (QOQ) and surpassed pre-pandemic levels, the remaining three metros fell short of 4Q2019 levels.

The state’s total single-family starts value diminished from $44.5 billion in 2021 to $38.4 billion. Houston and Dallas together contributed more than half of the state’s total at 29.6 percent and 26.6 percent, respectively. Austin’s market share was double that of San Antonio at 12.8 percent.

Active listings were flat at a seasonally adjusted rate of 91,600 units. Compared with the five-year average of 94,800 units before the pandemic, housing inventory was only 4.5 percent away from returning to the pre-pandemic volume. A year prior, inventory fell 50 percent short of pre-pandemic levels. Active listings in Austin fell 7 percent from November’s peak to 8,400 units, the first monthly dip since March 2022. This modest decline suggests Austin’s housing market may have returned to the traditional ebbs and flows seen before covid. Amid the recent slowdown, statewide months of inventory (MOI) ticked up to three months. The MOI for the four major metros ranged from 2.6 months to 3.4 months. While Dallas, Austin, and San Antonio inventories returned to pre-pandemic levels, Houston’s inventory was still below. 

Demand

Nearly 30 percent of total home sales vanished from December 2021 to December 2022.  In the past 12 months, sales volume sank from 37,200 to 26,300 closed listings. On a yearly basis, Houston lost the most in terms of both percentage and total volume, losing close to 35 percent and 3,500 units. On a monthly basis, Austin and Dallas lost the most in terms of YOY percent decline at 4.4 percent (Table 1).

Rising mortgage rates affect home sales disproportionately across price cohorts. For example, when the housing frenzy started to cool in the first half of the year, the affordable home market (homes below $300K) was hit first, beginning a streak of quarterly declines. Next, as the Fed’s interest rates became more aggressive in the second half of the year, the higher-end home market (homes above $750K) was hit worst, shrinking in a downward trend twice as fast as the affordable home market’s declining rate. Thus, affordable housing was hit first by rising mortgage rates with pricier homes following suit later in the year. 

With sales activity slowing, homes are sitting on the market longer. Texas’ average days on market (DOM) rose to 52. Compared with the five-year average of 59 days before 2020, the latest DOM metric suggests the housing market is quickly approaching historic norms. Annually, Austin’s DOM rose most aggressively, jumping from 19 days to 67 days. Constrained by diminishing sales, Houston had the most moderate DOM rebound, rising from 32 to 51 days.

Before the pandemic, the state’s DOM ranged from 55 days to 83 days. Now, DOM ranged from 48 days to 59 days. The relatively truncated DOM interval implies the housing market still has room to improve. Another metric that signals the housing market can be more relaxed is DOM for pricier homes. Typically, the most expensive homes sit on the market the longest. However, DOM for homes priced over $750K was 50 days—shorter than homes in the $400K-$500K price cohort.

Prices

Texas’ median home price peaked in May at $349,900 and has since been falling. Despite the price correction in the second half of the year, the state’s median price still rose 3.7 percent compared with a year ago. Homes in the Austin metro were most volatile, as the median price fell more than $78,000 from its peak, settling at a seasonally adjusted rate at $463,900 (Table 2). Austin was also the only metro area that reported a net loss YOY, while Dallas, Houston, and San Antonio reported YOY growth between 4.4 and 6.1 percent.

Median home price for new construction was over 15 percent higher than existing homes.

The ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield dropped 27 basis points to 3.6 percent2 in December, while the two-year counterpart was at 4.3 percent. The spread between the ten- and two-year bond yields continued to widen. The negative spread indicated persistent market uncertainties, and ten-year bond yield was still far below 2007’s peak of 5.1 percent. The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate moderated slightly this month to 6.4 percent, dropping from an all-time high of 6.9 percent in October.

Rapidly rising mortgage rates hit home prices hard over the past 12 months. The Texas Repeat Sales Home Price Index accounts for compositional price effects and provides a better measure of changes in single-family home values. Compared with December 2021’s 20.1 percent YOY increase, Texas’ index accelerated 5.5 percent YOY in December 2022, indicating price normalization. The same trend also affected the major metros as growth rates shrank from double- to single-digits, except in Austin, which had a net loss in home values.

According to the Texas Housing Affordability Index (THAI), purchase affordability decreased to 1.1 in 4Q2022, indicating median family income was 10 percent more than the required income to buy the median-priced home. This metric was down 35 basis points from 1.45 in 4Q2021, and it suggested that despite slowing home price appreciation, households faced more financial burden to buy a home due to the higher mortgage rate. For more information on how higher interest rates affect homebuying, read “How Higher Interest Rates Affect Homebuying.” 

_________________

1 All measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month over month, unless stated otherwise.

2 Bond and mortgage interest rates are nonseasonally adjusted. 

Source – Joshua Roberson and Weiling Yan (February 14, 2023)

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/Texas-Housing-Insight

Slide1

2022 DFW Real Estate Year-End Stats at a Glance

by ResourcesStatsVideo

Our second annual stats report of the DFW real estate market is here!

We’ve taken our monthly stats-at-a-glance reports from January through December of 2022, totaled, averaged, and compared the data to the numbers from 2021.  The result is an annual report of the DFW real estate market in 2022.  

For more stats information, pdfs and graphics of our stats including detailed information by MLS area and condo stats, visit the Resources section on our website at DFW Area Real Estate Statistics | Republic Title of Texas.

December 2022 Stats

December 2022 DFW Area Real Estate Stats

by Real Estate ArticlesResourcesStats

December 2022 Stats are IN!  Collin county shows an increase in all categories except number of sales compared to December of ’22.  Dallas County’s new listings for December were down 22% compared to last year, but active listings were up considerably from where they were a year ago. The average sales price was even down slightly at 1.4% as were the actual number of sales which is in line with the overall market.

In Denton County, the story is the same with new listing down and active listings up along with the average sales price and price per square foot. In Rockwall the numbers reflect generally the same situation.  As we begin 2023 however, the number of listings coming on the market looks strong and it appears that we are still in very good shape in the Metroplex! Happy Selling!

Our stats infographics include a year over year comparison and area highlights for single family homes broken down by county. We encourage you to share these infographics and video with your sphere.

For more stats information, pdfs and graphics of our stats including detailed information by county, visit the Resources section on our website at DFW Area Real Estate Statistics | Republic Title of Texas.

For the full report from the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, click here. For NTREIS County reports click here.

Housing-Insight-November-2022

Texas Housing Insight November 2022 Summary

by Real Estate ArticlesResourcesStats

The housing market continued to slow down as people consider mortgage rates and recession fears when making financial decisions. On the supply side, housing permits and housing starts are both in decline. Prices are correcting, and the market is accumulating inventory. However, as suggested by the sales volume, buyers are calmer now than during the pandemic frenzy, as many key indicators such as days on market (DOM) and months of inventory (MOI) are uniformly converging back to pre-pandemic levels. With the expectation of a higher mortgage interest rates annual average in 2023, existing-home sales will likely fall short of 2022’s levels.

Supply1

Homebuilders are initiating fewer building projects. The state’s year-to-date cumulative single-family construction permits in November 2022 had a net loss of 5.2 percent, shrinking from 157,043 to 148,954 units. The monthly drop paused in November, and construction permit issuance remained below 10,000 units. Construction permits rebounded in all major metros except Austin. Dallas (2,886 permits) gained more than 300 permits, while issuance in Houston (3,223 permits) stayed steady. Despite the slight decrease in Austin, the tech metro (1,341 permits) expanded residential space for single-family homes twice as fast as in San Antonio (663 permits). Construction generally slows during the winter, yet even after the seasonal adjustment, Texas’ single-family construction starts plummeted 28.5 percent from 2021 to 10,700 units, corroborating a slowdown in the housing industry.

The number of homes for sale typically declines after the summer peak. However, active listings have been quickly accumulating to a seasonally adjusted level of 91,600 units. Compared with the five-year average of 94,800 units before the pandemic, this November’s housing inventory level is only 4.5 percent away from rebounding back to the pre-pandemic volume, rather than 50 percent a year ago. Amid the rebound, Texas’ MOI ticked up to 2.9 months. Austin’s inventory level jumped to a ten-year high with 9,000 homes ready for sale, while Dallas’s housing supply was tight with 20,000 homes for sale, 3,700 fewer than in November 2019.

Demand

Total home sales inched down 3.3 percent month over month (MOM), settling at a seasonally adjusted rate of 26,800 closed sales (Table 1). Sales in Houston took a big hit, while sales in the other major metros stayed at October levels. Texas’ sales volume has shrunk by one tenth compared with a year earlier. As winter approaches, sales are expected to trend downward for the next two months.

Rising mortgage rates affect sales of differently prices homes disproportionately. Up to November, total sales for homes priced below $300K plummeted close to 30 percent in 2022, while total sales grew 15 percent for homes priced between $400K and $500K. The sales disparity between these two groups could suggest that rising rates sidelined more homebuyers in the lower-middle class than upper-middle class.

Amid slowing sales, homes are sitting on the market longer. Texas’ average DOM rose to 46 days. Compared with the five-year average of 59 days before 2020, the relatively brief period suggests the housing market is still relatively tight compared with historic norms. At the metropolitan level, Austin’s DOM rose most aggressively, doubling from 27 days in June to 57 days in November. Dallas’ DOM grew most moderately, rising from 25 to 42 days.

Before the pandemic, the state’s DOM ranged from 55 days to 83 days. Now, DOM ranged from 45 days to 52 days. The relatively truncated DOM interval implies the housing market still has room to improve. Another metric that signals the housing market can be more relaxed is DOM for pricier homes. Typically, the most expensive homes sit on the market the longest. However, DOM for homes priced over $750K was 45 days—shorter than homes in the $500K price cohort.

Prices

Texas’ median home price continued to fall, and the seasonally adjusted median price edged down 1 percent MOM. The four major metros posted mixed monthly changes (Table 2). Regardless of the depreciation in the past six months, the state’s median price remained 6.1 percent higher than year-ago levels. Dallas had the highest growth of 9.6 percent, while Austin’s growth rate deflated to 0.1 percent.

Since the Federal Reserve imposed the first 75-basis-point interest rate hike in June in an attempt to curb inflation, the ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield jumped 129 basis points to 3.89 percent2, while the two-year counterpart surged by 150 basis points. The spread between the ten- and two-year bond yields widened while staying in negative territory, indicating persistent market uncertainties.

The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate moderated slightly this month to 6.81 percent, but it still surpassed historical rates during 2007 and 2009. According to a Wall Street Journal analysis, some buyers have had to dodge the conventional way of borrowing from traditional lenders and instead borrow directly from family members or leverage either business or personal assets. 

The Texas Repeat Sales Home Price Index accounts for compositional price effects and provides a better measure of changes in single-family home values. Compared with November 2021’s 19.5 percent year-over-year (YOY) increase, Texas’ index accelerated 9.2 percent YOY in November 2022, indicating price moderation. The same trend also affected the major metros as growth rates shrank from double-digits to single-digits, except in San Antonio, which was 12.8 percent. Moderating home prices corroborated with the Fed’s inflation fight.

Household Pulse Survey

According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey, after last year’s historical low rates, the share of homeowners who were free from mortgage payments ticked up 3 percent to 36 percent in the U.S. and up 5 percent to 42 percent in Texas (Table 3). The share of homeowners who were caught up on payments increased as well.

_________________

1 All measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month over month, unless stated otherwise.

2 Bond and mortgage interest rates are nonseasonally adjusted. Loan-to-value ratios, debt-to-income ratios, and the credit score component are also nonseasonally adjusted.

Source – Joshua Roberson and Weiling Yan (January 10, 2023)

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/Texas-Housing-Insight

Slide1

November 2022 DFW Area Real Estate Stats

by Real Estate ArticlesResourcesStats

November 2022 Stats are IN!

Active listings are up across the board with an increase of over 100% in Collin, Dallas, Denton, Rockwall and Tarrant counties compared to last year. It will come as no surprise that the average days on market has also increased in these counties over last year’s market. The number of sales in November has declined around 30% in each of the counties we report on compared to November 2021.

Although the real estate market is changing, North Texas continue to be one of the leading markets across the nation as we head into 2023. The National Association of REALTORS recently ranked the Dallas – Fort Worth – Arlington market as the #3 real estate market to watch next year.

Our stats infographics include a year over year comparison and area highlights for single family homes broken down by county. We encourage you to share these infographics and video with your sphere.

For more stats information, pdfs and graphics of our stats including detailed information by county, visit the Resources section on our website at DFW Area Real Estate Statistics | Republic Title of Texas.

For the full report from the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, click here. For NTREIS County reports click here.

Housing-Insight-October-2022

Texas Housing Insight October 2022 Summary

by Real Estate ArticlesResourcesStats

Since the Federal Reserve announced the first 75-basis-point increase in June of this year, the housing market has retreated with both demand and supply slowing down. Home sales were down 7.4 percent over the previous month, and housing starts for apartments doubled in a year as investors adapted their strategies from selling single-family homes to renting out apartments. As the Fed continues its aggressive inflation policies, mortgage rates will not drop until inflation is curbed. Home prices have been depreciating, and Austin—the metro that inflated the most during 2021—saw the largest depreciation amid the market’s abrupt slowdown.

Supply1

Texas’ single-family construction permits dropped below 10,000 units for the first time in two years. Despite slowing housing activities, Texas remained most active at authorizing construction projects, surpassing No. 2 Florida by one additional permit for every nine permits. Construction permits fell in all major metros except Houston. Dallas (2,545 permits) contracted by more than 700 permits in the past month, falling to a three-year low, while demand in Houston (3,226) stayed steady. As usual, Austin (1,380) was building homes twice as fast as San Antonio (629). Contrary to the weakened single-family sector, permits for Texas’ multifamily sector grew robustly. The number of issuances both for 2-4 family homes and apartments doubled from the year before.

The lumber producer price index (PPI) fell four times in the past six months, and the input cost had slid 17.6 percent since the year started. Since June’s interest rate rise, the South’s total housing starts plummeted quickly. However, this measure of new-home construction jumped to its highest level since bottoming out in June to 808,000 units in October, as housing starts inched up 6.7 percent month over month (MOM). Growth was driven largely by multi-unit construction permits while single-family units continued to stall.

While new homebuilding projects are slowing, the state’s current supplies have been accumulating. Active listings grew 6.6 percent MOM to a seasonally adjusted rate of 89,800 units. Compared with March’s inventory of 41,800 units, the metric has doubled, and the state has nearly recovered to the pre-pandemic level. Accordingly, Texas’ months of inventory (MOI) ticked up to 2.7 MOI. San Antonio led the pack with three MOI, followed closely by Austin. Dallas remained the tightest with 2.3 MOI. This trend suggests a cooler housing market, considering the conspicuously low inventories in the past two years.

Demand

Total home sales diminished 7.4 percent MOM, settling at a seasonally adjusted rate of 27,900 closed listings (Table 1). Texas’ four Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSA) all mirrored the statewide trend, as sales in each metro shrank by double digits YOY. The rapid decline in housing sales has revealed how important low mortgage rates are to the latest housing frenzy. According to Texas Realtors’ Data Relevance Project, October sales were down 21 percent from a year earlier. At the current rate, year-end 2022 sales will likely fall short of 2021.

Amid this plunge in demand, the remaining buyers prefer new homes to existing homes. When sales were differentiated by the existing-home market and the new-construction market, the state’s cumulative sales volume plummeted 8.8 percent YTD in the former sector, while the same metric jumped 9.2 percent in the latter sector. The sales disparity was even more pronounced in Austin.

Closed listings for homes priced below $300K fell below 10,000 transactions for the first time in a decade, falling close to 50 percent compared with February 2020. This is partially due to the fallen overall demand but more because of the rapid appreciation brought by the housing frenzy. Due to the rapidly rising price, the market share for home sales in this price cohort fell from 84 percent to 39 percent in the past ten years.

Homes are sitting on the market longer as a result of slowing sales. Texas’ average days on market (DOM) balanced at 42 days. DOM ranged from 37 days in Dallas to 47 days in San Antonio. Despite the prolonged waiting time, compared with the five-year average of 59 days before 2020, the relatively short period suggests the housing market is still relatively tight compared with historic norms.

Additionally, in February 2020 DOM ranged from 55 days to 83 days respectively for homes in the median price cohort and in the higher-end tail. In September 2022, the DOM interval was 43 to 44 days. The truncated DOM interval both in terms of value and difference of the two price cohorts implies the housing market still has ample room to fully return to the normal level.

Prices

After a mild moderation in September, Texas’ median home price continued to decline. The state’s seasonally adjusted median price edged down to $338,000, decreasing 1.6 percent MOM. The four major metros posted mixed monthly changes (Table 2). Regardless of the recent depreciation, prices in these MSAs remained higher than their year-ago levels, with the lowest growth in Austin at 4.8 percent and highest in Dallas at 11.1 percent.

As the Federal Reserve imposed forceful monetary policies to curb inflation, the ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield jumped to 3.98 percent2, while the two-year counterpart surged by a similar amount. The spread difference between the ten-year and two-year bond yields widened slightly while staying in negative territory, indicating persistent market uncertainties. The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate elevated further to a 20-year high at 6.9 percent. This rate surpassed all historical rates during 2007 and 2009.

Rapidly rising mortgage rates diminished purchasing power and sidelined many prospective buyers. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage applications for new-home purchases plummeted more than one fourth from year-ago levels, and the national median payment rose 3.7 percent to $2,012 in October. According to a Wall Street Journal analysis, some buyers have had to dodge the conventional way of borrowing from traditional lenders and instead borrow directly from family members or leverage either business or personal assets.

The Texas Repeat Sales Home Price Index, which accounts for compositional price effects, corroborated the trend of mixed responses in major metros, with Fort Worth falling 1 percent MOM and San Antonio rising 0.3 percent MOM. On the year-to-year levels, the annual appreciation ranged from 3.7 percent to 10.8 percent, with Austin growing the least and Dallas leading the pack.

Household Pulse Survey

The U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey indicates that despite rapidly rising mortgage rates, the share of Texas homeowners behind on their mortgage payments stayed at 4 percent as in September (Table 3), on par with the national level. This implies that while the outlook on the overall housing market dimmed, homeowners’ financial health remained healthy. Texas owners especially bolstered their housing status, as the owned free/clear homes rose 4 percentage points above the national average. Fewer Texas homeowners reported the possibility of foreclosure on average as the proportion of delinquent individuals at risk of foreclosure dropped to 4 percent (Table 4). These numbers suggested many prospective homebuyers, who were initially not confident about their financial stability, may have opted out of buying a house during this period.

_________________

1 All measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month over month, unless stated otherwise.

2 Bond and mortgage interest rates are nonseasonally adjusted. Loan-to-value ratios, debt-to-income ratios, and the credit score component are also nonseasonally adjusted.

Source – Joshua Roberson, Weiling Yan, and John Shaunfield (December 7, 2022)

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/Texas-Housing-Insight

Slide1

October 2022 DFW Area Real Estate Stats

by Real Estate ArticlesResourcesStats

October 2022 Stats are IN!

In Collin and Denton counties, all arrows are pointing up in the areas of new listings and active listings with active listing seeing an increase of over 100% in both counties compared to last year. It will come as no surprise that the average days on market has also increased in these counties over last year’s market. What we are all seeing in the news is reflected in the number of sales in October which has declined between 25 and 30%.

In Dallas and Tarrant counties, we are seeing similar trends, however, new listings are down by about 10% in both counties. Active listings are down 39% in Dallas County and up 82% in Tarrant County. Average sales prices are up 16.7% in Dallas and 14.2% in Tarrant. Again, the number of sales is down by approximately 30% in both of these counties.

Our stats infographics include a year over year comparison and area highlights for single family homes broken down by county. We encourage you to share these infographics and video with your sphere.

For more stats information, pdfs and graphics of our stats including detailed information by county, visit the Resources section on our website at DFW Area Real Estate Statistics | Republic Title of Texas.

For the full report from the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, click here. For NTREIS County reports click here.

Slide1

September 2022 DFW Area Real Estate Stats

by Real Estate ArticlesResourcesStats

September 2022 Stats are IN!

In Collin County, all arrows point up with regard to new and active listings, average sales price, average price per square foot and days on market. The number of sales is down about 26% from 2021. In Dallas County, new listings are down 5.5% from this time last year, along with the number of sales down almost 23% from 2021. The number of active listings is up 22.5% from last year, along with increases in days on market (up 27%), averages sales price (up 9%) from the prior year and prices per square foot (up 16%). Denton County sees the biggest increase in active listings up over 100% from last year, along with increases in new listings, average sales price, average price per square foot and days on market. Not surprisingly, we see much of the same statistics in Rockwall and Tarrant Counties.

The good news is that buyers have more options than they did in 2021. However, even with the increased inventory, there is still only an average of 2.5 month supply in all counties (according to NTREIS TRENDS report) which still makes it very much a sellers’ market in North Texas (with people still moving here)! Happy Selling!

Our stats infographics include a year over year comparison and area highlights for single family homes broken down by county. We encourage you to share these infographics and video with your sphere.

For more stats information, pdfs and graphics of our stats including detailed information by county, visit the Resources section on our website at DFW Area Real Estate Statistics | Republic Title of Texas.

For the full report from the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, click here. For NTREIS County reports click here.

Housing-Insight-August-2022

Texas Housing Insight August 2022 Summary

by Real Estate ArticlesResourcesStats

The pandemic-induced housing frenzy is easing as the Fed’s aggressive monetary policies directly affect the housing market. Mortgage interest rates rose from 2.84 to 5.22 percent in the past year. Amid these robust rate increases, Texas’ housing market quickly dialed back sales while supplies have gradually accumulated. Despite the slowdown, inventory levels remain below historical levels, and prices are still high. While prices have dipped some in recent months, they still remain considerably high compared with before the pandemic. As of August, Texas’ median price remains 11.4 percent elevated from a year earlier.

Supply1

Interest rates continued to increase following more aggressive Federal Reserve intervention. Despite mounting interest rate pressure, Texas’ single-family construction permits recovered 12,500 permits in August, rising 9.3 percent month over month (MOM). Permits rebounded in three of the state’s four largest metros (San Antonio being the exception). Houston (3,700) and Dallas (3,693) had the most permits, while Austin (1,609) and San Antonio (681) followed third and fourth in the state. Meanwhile, Texas’ single-family construction values continued to fall by double digits, tumbling to a two-year low. All major metros reported double-digit negative year-to-date (YTD) growth.

Permits for Texas’ multifamily sector corrected. After July’s abnormally high request of 12,500 construction permits, 9,000 permits were issued in August.

Total overall housing starts in the Southern Census Bureau Region also recovered some in August with 885,000 new starts. However, single-family housing starts, which account for the biggest share of the overall count, remained 100,000 units short of the year-ago average with 530,000. August’s boost could be partially explained by declining input costs such as lumber. The lumber producer price index (PPI) decreased for the third time in a row in August.

In the existing-home market, the state’s current supply has accumulated throughout the summer. Active listings rose more than 30,000 units since May. This loosening up of housing availability indicates a break-through considering the distinctly low inventories of the past two years. Texas’ housing supply, which had been below two months of inventory (MOI) from November 2020 to June 2022, ticked up to 2.4 months. San Antonio led with 2.7 months, and Dallas remained the tightest with two months (Table 1). The Texas Real Estate Research Center considers six to 6.5 months of inventory a balanced market.

Demand

As a result of higher mortgage rates, housing demand has fallen, and homes are sitting on the market longer. Sales improved slightly in August (5 percent MOM) from July’s steep decline, reaching a seasonally adjusted rate of 29,300 sales. Overall home sales have been in freefall since around April. At the current rate, 2022 sales will likely fall short of 2021. According to the Center’s Data Relevance Program, the sales level was down 16.3 percent from a year earlier.

Sales in all major metros remained low as mortgage pressures rattled buyers. Austin and Houston’s closed listings were most affected with a 20 percent year-over-year (YOY) reduction, while DFW and San Antonio pulled back more than 10 percent. Existing-home sales, which make up 80 percent of Texas’ housing market, inched down for the seventh straight month. Texas’ marginal recovery in August was concentrated in the remaining 20 percent of the housing market, where Dallas’ new-construction market had double-digit growth.

Texas’ average days on market (DOM) was 38 days, up from 29 days in March. However, compared with the five-year average of 57 days between 2014 and the early 2020s, the relatively short time suggests a persistent imbalance between sellers’ and buyers’ bargaining-power. Amid slowing sales, Austin’s market reacted most aggressively, doubling the listing time in the past five months, while DFW reacted most moderately.

When days on market are differentiated based on the home market, the existing homes’ DOMs are conspicuously lower than new homes’. This could possibly be due to differing price points as new homes tend to be more expensive than the average existing-home listing. Categorized by price cohorts, homes priced between $300K and $500K had the shortest listing time, taken off list in 34 days.

Prices

The downward trend for Texas’ median home price continued in August. The state’s seasonally adjusted median price was $342,000, falling more than $10,000 in three months. Prices dropped in all metros except San Antonio, which advanced $2,000 this month (Table 2). Dallas and Houston, Texas’ two largest MSA areas, reported modest declines of $2,000, while Austin took the biggest hit of $11,000. Although housing prices are recently under correction, they remain much elevated from year-ago prices, accelerating 11.4 percent YOY. Even for Austin, the price in this much-affected market was up 5.5 percent YOY.

The Federal Reserve is expected to impose more forceful monetary policies throughout the latter half of this year and likely into the upcoming year to combat inflation. While the ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield persisted at 2.9 percent2, the two-year counterpart continued to march upward. The spread between the ten-year and the two-year bond yields dipped further in the negative territory, indicating the market’s economic uncertainties about the near future. The Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate refrained from June’s high of 5.52 percent and slipped 30 basis points in the past two months. The last time the mortgage rate was over 5 percent was 2009. For more information on the effect of mortgage interest rates on purchase affordability, see “How Higher Interest Rates Affect Homebuying.” 

The Texas Repeat Sales Home Price Index, which accounts for compositional price effects, corroborated the trend of depreciation. The index’s monthly decline was the second in a row. Annual appreciation slowed to 12.1 percent YOY in August compared with 20.4 percent YOY growth in January. While Dallas’ home price index remained above the state average, Austin’s YOY rate fell to a single digit, behind Houston’s yearly growth and down to the slowest appreciating metro.

Household Pulse Survey

According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey, in spite of rising mortgage rates, the share of Texas homeowners current on their mortgage payments improved 60 basis points in August, and the percentage of people who were behind shrunk to 4 percent (Table 3). This implies that while the overall economy continues to decline, homeowner financial health has so far remained robust. Houston owners’ bolstered ability to pay their mortgage resulted in an increase in the state’s average owned free/clear homes ratio. On the other hand, when asked about future payments, fewer Texas homeowners were confident that they would not face foreclosure. The proportion of delinquent individuals at risk of foreclosure shot up 80 basis points to 8 percent (Table 4).

_________________

1 All measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month over month, unless stated otherwise.

2 Bond and mortgage interest rates are nonseasonally adjusted. 

Source – Joshua Roberson, Weiling Yan, and John Shaunfield (September 29, 2022)

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/Texas-Housing-Insight