Housing-Insight-2021-Annual-Summary

Texas Housing Insight 2021 Annual Summary

The Texas housing market was strong for most of 2021 as mortgage interest rates remained low throughout the year. Sales accelerated, and the average home price increased. Demand remained robust as households desired additional space and better neighborhoods. On the other hand, while new listings increased in 2021, the pace wasn’t enough to keep up with demand, particularly for listings in the lower price cohorts. Housing starts increased drastically in the first half of the year but slowed during the second half due to stubborn supply chain issues and mounting backlogs. In a strenuous and uncertain economy, the housing market was defined by shrinking supply and strong demand, putting upward pressure on the housing market, increasing home prices across the state.

Many of the same factors that defined the 2021 housing market will carry over into the new year, namely constrained inventory, which should maintain elevated price levels despite a slowdown in price growth. Nevertheless, Texas Real Estate Research Center economists expect single-family sales to increase 6.2 percent in January 2022. New variants of the virus present ongoing challenges and uncertainty, but the economic and housing outlook has remained positive. Rising mortgage rates will likely slow sales, but an increasing population and limited inventories should sustain home prices for the foreseeable future.

Supply*

The Texas Residential Construction Cycle (Coincident) Index, which measures current construction activity, increased nationally and within Texas due to strong demand for housing. The Texas Residential Construction Leading Index (RCLI) reached a peak in April with an increase in weighted building permits and residential construction value starts combined with declines in the ten-year real Treasury bill. The trend, however, reverted downward at both the state and major-metropolitan levels, indicating slower activity in the beginning of 2022. Supply-chain issues weighed on construction activity and remain a significant challenge in coming months.

In response to supply shortages and despite the challenges of COVID-19, developers accelerated activity at the earliest stage of the construction cycle. According to Zonda, the number of new vacant developed lots (VDLs) in the Texas Urban Triangle, which encompasses the state’s major Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs), elevated 8.2 percent annually in 2021 to 126,000. Austin led the state with an 18.2 percent increase over the previous year, and Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) followed with a rise of 13.1 percent. San Antonio VDLs rose 7.9 percent, while the Houston metric increased incrementally by 1.9 percent. While these efforts should ease pressure on the overall housing market, it will take a much larger response to raise supply to meet the demand. 

Strong lot development was matched by a record 173,000 single-family housing construction permits issued in Texas. The statewide metric rose 11.2 percent over the previous year despite soaring lumber and input costs resulting from global supply constraints. Houston and Dallas topped the charts for the year, issuing over 52,100 and 48,400 permits, respectively. Austin and San Antonio both saw strong gains, issuing 24,356 and 13,862 permits, respectively.

Total Texas housing starts began the year with strong growth; however, the pandemic disrupted typical seasonal trends with permit issuance. Lumber prices were elevated in early 2021 and skyrocketed in May. Though prices dropped off somewhat by August, they ended the year 18.6 percent higher than 2020. Regardless, per Zonda, single-family starts in the urban triangle rose 21.2 percent over 2020 due to huge increases for homes slated to sell for $300,000 or more. Starts of homes priced at more than $500,000 surged 94.7 percent over the year. Starts at the low end of the price spectrum ($200,000 and less) decreased 71.9 percent. Limited supply in the lower price cohorts shifted the contribution of sales more toward the higher-priced categories. Construction focused more on high-end homes due to elevated material costs leaving less room for profit in lower-priced categories. All major metros saw double-digit increases in housing starts. San Antonio and DFW sustained strong growth with 29.6 and 28.3 percent increases, respectively, while Austin saw a 22.9 percent surge. Meanwhile, Houston posted a 12.6 percent increase, much lower than the other major metros.

Steady sales and depressed new Multiple Listing Service (MLS) listings pulled Texas’ total months of inventory (MOI) to an average of 1.6 across all price cohorts. A total MOI of around six months is considered a balanced housing market. Houses in the $200,000-$299,999 price cohort fell to one MOI throughout the year, dipping at its lowest to 0.8 MOI. Even homes priced above $500,000 dropped to 2.4 months compared with 2.9 months the previous year as constrained supply at the lower end of the price spectrum pushed buyers toward higher-priced homes. 

Demand

Texas reported 417,050 total housing sales through MLS in 2021, increasing over 6 percent annually. With the robust demand and constrained inventory in the lower price cohorts, more consumers competed for houses priced between $300,000 and $399,000. Sales in this price cohort reached an all-time high, jumping 40.02 percent annually, with the bulk of the increase a result of the second quarter. On the other hand, sales for luxury homes (priced more than $500,000) also broke the record, ascending at double-digits in percentage terms amid the expanded supply.

Houston led the urban triangle in home-sale growth at 11.8 percent. San Antonio and Austin followed with 4.6 percent and 2.5 percent sales growth, respectively. Contrary to the other metros, Dallas and Fort Worth sales balanced after reaching historical highs in 2021 as low inventories limited market activity.

The market share for metros in the Texas Urban Triangle shifted year to year. This percentage split shows how sales in one metro are growing or shrinking compared with other major state metros. In 2021, Houston had the biggest market change with a 2 percent YOY increase, up to 27 percent. The market loss was distributed to Dallas and Fort Worth, which decreased to 18 and 9 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, Austin and San Antonio remained stable at 10 percent market share.

According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey, homeownership in Texas normalized to 64.2 percent over the year compared with the national rate of 65.5 percent. Homeownership rates decreased annually at the metropolitan level, but were still higher than 2019 values. The rates in Austin and DFW rolled back 3 percent, falling to 62.4 percent and 61.8 percent, respectively. Houston’s metric ticked down to 64.1 percent, while 62.7 percent of San Antonio’s total housing units were owner-occupied. The decreased rate may be because of rising cost of homes across the board coupled with scarce housing options in the lower price categories typically associated with starter homes, leading potential buyers to rent instead.

Amid record-breaking sales activity, Texas’ average days on market (DOM) dropped from 47 days in 2020 to 34 days in 2021. The sellers’ market was hottest in July when the DOM plummeted to 26 days. Corroborating robust housing demand, Dallas and Fort Worth’s DOM sank to 29 and 28 days, respectively. Austin remained the most demanded metro, with homes averaging just 25 days on the market. Demand grew stronger in San Antonio with a 12-day decrease in the DOM, converging with the state average. The Houston DOM remained above the state averagebut still fell to 37 days.

The Federal Reserve is expected to accelerate the tapering of assets purchases and increase the Federal Funds rate at least two to four times in 2022, reflecting rising interest rates. The ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield ticked up 55 basis points in 2021, averaging 1.5 percent. Meanwhile, the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate fell to 3 percent. Notably, both bond and mortgage rates started rebounding after August, counterbalancing the inflation surge. Mortgage rates for conventional mortgages plummeted below 3 percent within Texas, highlighting a year of unprecedented low levels. Mortgage rates plunged to 3 percent for non-government-sponsored-enterprise (GSE) loans while the median mortgage rate for GSE borrowers diminished to 3.2 percent (GSEs include Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac). Mortgage application counts declined drastically in 2021. During that period, the number of refinance applications shrank 27.1 percent SAAR, while purchase applications shrank by 12.6 percent. Amid the reduced mortgage rate and bolstered home prices, average loan sizes decreased 2.6 percent for refinance applications, and the sizes increased 15.3 percent for purchase applications. (For more information, see Finding a Representative Interest Rate for the Typical Texas Mortgagee.)

Tightened lending standards continued with the strong housing demand. The debt-to-income ratio (DTI) constituting the “typical” Texas non-GSE mortgage decreased to 35.9 in 2021. Relief actions taken by the federal government and lenders helped some households pay off debt and save money. This helped push borrowers’ median credit score to a multidecade high of 749 The median loan-to-value ratio (LTV) dipped to 85.3 percent for non-GSE borrowers, leaving borrowers with a maximized loan value that’s 2.2 percent less with the same home equity value, while the GSE metric flattened at 85.4. The DTI for GSE borrowers, on the other hand, ticked up, inching up from 35.6 to 36.

Prices

Texas’ median home price rose for ten consecutive months, reaching a record-breaking $300,000 and appreciating at an astonishing rate of 15.6 percent annually. All five major metros all hit record-high median prices in the last months. The ongoing shift in the composition of sales toward higher-priced homes due to constrained inventories at the lower end of the market boosted the average and median home price. The share of luxury homes sold in Austin surged, pushing the median price ($450,000) by a notable growth of 30.8 percent YOY. The Dallas metric ($365,000) increased 17.4 percent, while annual price growth in Fort Worth ($309,000) shot up to 18.8 percent. Houston’s ($300,000) and San Antonio’s ($284,900) metrics increased to 15.4 and 14.4 percent, respectively.

The Texas Repeat Sales Home Price Index accounts for compositional price effects and provides a better measure of changes in single-family home values. Compared with December 2020’s 8.3 percent YOY increase. Texas’ index corroborated significant home-price appreciation, accelerating 19.5 percent YOY in 2021. The rate of growth surpassed the surge in the median home price. The repeat sales index also accelerated in all of the major metros. Austin stood above the rest, posting a 34 percent increase YOY. DFW and San Antonio saw their index rise 18.4 and 15.4 percent, respectively. Meanwhile, Houston had the lowest gains but a still strong 12.4 percent. Increasing home prices pressured housing affordability, decreasing Texas affordability advantage compared with past years.

Single-Family Forecast

Texas sales in January 2022 are expected to increase 6.2 percent over December 2021 (Table 1). On the metropolitan level, transactions are expected to drop across the board, but San Antonio is expected to decline the most. Except for Dallas, year-end home sales were greater in 2021 than in 2020.

Household Pulse Survey

According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey, the share of homeowners behind on mortgage payments shrank both at the national and state levels compared with year-ago numbers (Table 2). Remarkably, the portion of Texas homeowners free and clear of a mortgage rose 2.9 percent, corroborating the effect of reduced mortgage rates and a recovered economy. Likewise, homeowners claiming the risk of foreclosure as “not likely” increased significantly from 8.5 percent to 27.5 percent. The proportion of delinquent individuals at risk of foreclosure in the state fell to only 0.3 percent. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s foreclosure and REO eviction moratoria for properties owned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the Enterprises) expired Sept. 30, 2021. Continuing the stability and current trend in reducing delinquent homeowners’ mortgage payments is essential to Texas’ economic recovery.

________________

* All measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month over month, unless stated otherwise.

Source – Joshua Roberson, Wesley Miller, Weiling Yan, and John Shaunfield (Apr 6, 2022)

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/Texas-Housing-Insight

Blog Graphic

February 2022 DFW Area Real Estate Stats

February stats are here and we have the numbers! 

Our stats infographics include a year over year comparison and area highlights for single family homes and condos broken down by MLS area. We encourage you to share these infographics and video with your sphere.

For more stats information, pdfs and graphics of our stats including detailed information by MLS area and condo stats, visit the Resources section on our website at DFW Area Real Estate Statistics | Republic Title of Texas.

For the full report from the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, click here. For NTREIS County reports click here.

Housing-Insight-November-2021

Texas Housing Insight November 2021

Texas’ housing market continued to rise in November, trending upward despite ongoing supply constraints. Months of inventory slid to 1.5 months, and single-family permits weakened. Housing starts, however, expanded despite lumber and other input price increases. The lack of inventory for homes priced under $300,000 remains the greatest challenge to Texas’ housing market. Demand remained steady despite being stagnated by lack of inventory. Still, the state’s diverse and expanding economy, favorable business policies, and steady population growth support a favorable outlook.

Supply1

The Texas Residential Construction Cycle (Coincident) Index, which measures current construction activity, decreased nationally and within Texas due to falling employment outweighing heightened construction gains. The Texas Residential Construction Leading Index (RCLI) possibly reached a trough and could increase in the coming months, signaling an increase in future activity. The leading index’s downward trend was reverted by an increase in weighted building permits and residential construction value starts along with the ten-year real Treasury bill’s continued decline. The leading indexes in the major metros continued to decline, indicating slower activity in the coming months. Current inflationary conditions due to supply chain issues are putting downward pressure on construction activity and may impede construction activity in the coming months.

Single-family construction permits fell 2.2 percent month over month (MOM), and the permit issuance had dropped since December 2020. Despite the overall decrease, Houston and DFW remained the top metros nationally, outnumbering Phoenix by 1,000 permits. Houston ranked first for the eighth consecutive month with 3,887 nonseasonally adjusted permits, followed by DFW with 3,523 permits. Austin and San Antonio issued 1,480 and 872 permits, respectively. Texas’ multifamily permits plummeted 12.2 percent on a monthly basis; however, the metric was up 12.3 percent year to date (YTD).

After three months of continuous decline, robust economic conditions and copious demand pushed total Texas housing starts up 6.5 percent as lumber prices increased 12.4 percent. Single-family private construction values also increased in real terms. A 10.6 percent MOM upturn in Houston values contributed to the majority of the statewide growth. This upswing overcame the 13.2 percent and 8.6 percent MOM reduction, respectively, in Austin and San Antonio.

Texas’ months of inventory (MOI) hovered at 1.5 months as active listings and sales activity stabilized. A six-month MOI is typically considered a balanced housing market. Supply was limited across all price categories. Most notably, the inventory for luxury homes (those priced more than $500,000) dropped to 2.3 months, a record low. Total housing inventory in the major metros dropped slightly, with the MOI remaining most constrained in Austin at 0.8 months. The metric in North Texas fell to one and 1.1 months in Dallas and Fort Worth, respectively. Houston’s MOI decreased to 1.6 months, while San Antonio’s declined to 1.7 months. Dwindling inventory persisted as a major headwind to the health of Texas’ housing market.

Demand

Despite the deflated inventory, demand increased across all price cohorts. Total housing sales rose 2.6 percent MOM. Transactions at the lower end of the price spectrum decreased significantly compared with year-ago levels, while the opposite occurred at the higher end. Housing sales for homes priced under $299,000 cut back 23.1 percent YTD, while housing sales for homes priced at more than $300,000 rose 37.8 percent YTD.

Housing sales increased across the price spectrum at the metropolitan level, except in San Antonio where total sales contracted 3.3 percent. Meanwhile, Houston mirrored statewide fluctuations as sales jumped 2.6 percent. In Austin, the metric rose 1.1 percent, while North Texas activity increased 0.5 and 8.1 percent in Dallas and Fort Worth, respectively.

Texas’ average days on market (DOM) fell marginally to 31 days amid robust demand and limited inventory. Austin remained the most popular housing market with its DOM slipping another day, averaging 20 days. The metrics in North Texas averaged 25 days. San Antonio’s and Houston’s metrics registered two-day gains, with both metros averaging 34 days.

Market expectations are for the Federal Reserve to accelerate the tapering of asset purchases and increasing the Federal Funds rate two to four times in 2022. The ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield returned to pre-pandemic levels of 1.6 percent2, while the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate hovered around 3.1 percent for the second consecutive month. The median mortgage rate for the typical Texas homebuyer climbed to 3.2 percent for GSE loans in October3 and fell ten basis points to 2.9 percent for non-GSE loans. Among the mixed mortgage interest rate changes, home-purchase applications strengthened for November but overall fell 4 percent YTD. Meanwhile, refinance applications have declined on a monthly basis and were down 29.9 percent since December 2020. Year-over-year (YOY) purchase and refinance applications diminished 3.5 and 31.7 percent, respectively, largely due to baseline effects after a surge of remodeling and refinancing in 2020. (For more information, see Finding a Representative Interest Rate for the Typical Texas Mortgagee.)

In October, the median loan-to-value ratio (LTV) constituting the “typical” Texas conventional-loan mortgage dropped from 87.4 the previous year to 84.2. The debt-to-income ratio (DTI) declined from 36.4 to 35.5, while the median credit score increased six points to 751 over the same period. The LTV for GSE borrowers increased slightly from 85.2 in October to 85.7; meanwhile, their DTI grew from 35.5 to 36.7.

Prices

The ongoing shift in the composition of sales toward higher-priced homes due to constrained inventories at the lower end of the market boosted the average and median home price. The Texas median home price rose for the 11th consecutive month, appreciating 1.7 percent on a monthly basis and 17.2 percent YOY to a record-breaking $319,112. The five major metros all hit historically high median prices. The share of luxury homes sold in Austin continued to expand, contributing to the 29.6 percent YOY surge in the median price ($475,700). The Dallas metric ($386,500) increased 18.1 percent, while annual price growth in Fort Worth ($331,800) shot up to 20.6 percent. Houston’s ($315,200) and San Antonio’s ($308,600) metrics were hikes of 16.2 and 19.7 percent, respectively.

The Texas Repeat Sales Home Price Index accounts for compositional price effects and provides a better measure of changes in single-family home values. Compared with November 2020’s 7.8 percent YOY increase, Texas’ index corroborated significant home-price appreciation, accelerating 18.6 percent YOY in 2021. The growth rate surpassed the surge in the median home price. The repeat sales index accelerated in the major metros, except in Austin and Houston. Annual price growth reached recent peaks in Dallas. The metric dipped to 35.1 percent in Austin after a year of explosive growth, while North Texas prices increased 24.1 and 22 percent in Dallas and Fort Worth, respectively. San Antonio posted an 18.4 percent annual hike, while Houston’s index decelerated to 14.6 percent. Increasing home prices pressured housing affordability, decreasing Texas’ affordability advantage over other states like California.

Single-Family Forecast

The Texas Real Estate Research Center projected single-family housing sales using monthly pending listings from the preceding period (Table 1). Texas sales are expected to fall 3.8 percent in December after increasing during the past month. The metric is estimated to slow to 1.9 percent in Austin, with additional losses of 6.5 percent and 5.8 percent in DFW and Houston, respectively. Transactions in San Antonio, however, are forecasted to rebound 0.4 percent. Sales through December 2021 should accelerate relative to the same period in 2020. On the supply side, listings seemed to have reached a trough in May and are rising, easing some of the price pressures amid a rise in new and pending listings.

 

Household Pulse Survey

According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey, the share of homeowners behind on their mortgage payments varied little on the national level, while the share decreased 1 percent in Texas (Table 2). On the other hand, more homeowners who struggled to keep up with mortgage payments faced the possibility of foreclosure. The share of Texas respondents who were not current and expected foreclosure to be “somewhat likely” in the next two months jumped 15 percent, while the share reporting “not very likely” plummeted 22 percent from October to November (Table 3). The proportion of delinquent individuals at risk of foreclosure rose in Houston from 18 to 34 percent. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s foreclosure and REO eviction moratoria for properties owned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the Enterprises) expired Sept. 30, 2021. Continued stability in the housing market is essential to Texas’ economic recovery.

________________

1 All measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month over month, unless stated otherwise.

2 Bond and mortgage interest rates are nonseasonally adjusted. Loan-to-value ratios, debt-to-income ratios, and the credit score component are also nonseasonally adjusted.

3 The release of Texas mortgage rate data typically lag the Texas Housing Insight by one month.

Source – Luis B. Torres, Wesley Miller, Jacob Straus, and Brendan Harrison Feb 22, 2022)

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/Texas-Housing-Insight

Blog Graphic

January 2022 DFW Area Real Estate Stats

January stats are here and we have the numbers! 

Our stats infographics include a year over year comparison and area highlights for single family homes and condos broken down by MLS area. We encourage you to share these infographics and video with your sphere.

For more stats information, pdfs and graphics of our stats including detailed information by MLS area and condo stats, visit the Resources section on our website at DFW Area Real Estate Statistics | Republic Title of Texas

For the full report from the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, click here. For NTREIS County reports click here.

2021 DFW Real Estate Stats-at-a-glance

2021 DFW Real Estate Year-End Stats at a Glance

We’ve taken our monthly stats-at-a-glance reports from January through December of 2021, totaled, averaged, and compared the data to the numbers from 2020. The result is an annual report of the DFW area real estate market in 2021. The annual totals reiterate the lack of inventory we saw in 2021, indicating a very strong seller’s market. This drove up lists prices by an average of 20% across the five counties reported on, for an average list price of just over $442k. While list prices steadily rose as the year progressed, so did average price per square foot, averaging $187 in the five counties. It sure will be interesting to see how 2022 plays out!

For more stats information, pdfs and graphics of our stats including detailed information by MLS area and condo stats, visit the Resources section on our website at DFW Area Real Estate Statistics | Republic Title of Texas.

December 2021 Stats Blog Header

December 2021 DFW Area Real Estate Stats

December 2021 stats are here and we have the numbers! Let’s see how the DFW real estate market ending 2021. Active listing fell slightly from November, but that is to be expected over the holiday season. As expected due to the lack of inventory, the overall number of sales is down in all counties while the days on market continues to drop. Not surprisingly, the price per square foot in the metroplex continues to rise in all five counties with Collin County seeing the biggest increase up 33% over last year, followed by Denton county at 26%.

Our stats infographics include a year over year comparison and area highlights for single family homes and condos broken down by MLS area. We encourage you to share these infographics and video with your sphere.

For more stats information, pdfs and graphics of our stats including detailed information by MLS area and condo stats, visit the Resources section on our website at DFW Area Real Estate Statistics | Republic Title of Texas

For the full report from the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, click here. For NTREIS County reports click here.

Housing-Insight-October-2021

Texas Housing Insight October 2021

Texas housing sales slowed in October but trended upward amid continued supply constraints. Along with higher mortgage interest rates, double-digit home-price appreciation chipped away at housing affordability. Elevated demand persisted as homes averaged roughly one month on the market. On the supply side, single-family housing permits increased for the second consecutive month, but housing starts declined as lumber and other input material prices rose. The relatively low level of inventory available for sale is the greatest challenge to Texas’ housing market. The state’s diverse and expanding economy, favorable business policies, and steady population growth, however, support a favorable outlook.

Supply1

The Texas Residential Construction Cycle (Coincident) Index, which measures current construction activity, flattened nationally and within Texas due to decreased construction values despite employment and wage gains during October. The Texas Residential Construction Leading Index ticked down as weighted building permits decreased, signaling a potential slowdown in future activity. Among the major metros, weighted building permits and residential starts increased, except in Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW), where there was a decrease in both metrics. Inflationary pressures, however, tempered economic expectations and may slow construction activity in coming months.

Single-family construction permits accelerated 4.5 percent in October, increasing for a second straight month. Houston topped the national list for seven consecutive months with 3,887 nonseasonally adjusted permits after registering a healthy seasonally adjusted increase. DFW ranked second on the national list and posted a double-digit monthly expansion to 3,523 permits. Meanwhile, Austin and San Antonio issued 1,480 and 872 permits, respectively. On the other hand, Texas’ multifamily sector registered incremental growth as issuance shifted from two-to-four units to five-or-more units. The metric ticked up just 0.7 percent on a monthly basis but elevated 12.3 percent year to date (YTD) relative to the same period last year.

Despite strengthening economic conditions and ample housing demand, total Texas housing starts declined as lumber prices increased 17.9 percent in October. Single-family private construction values, however, increased slightly in real terms, but the metric continued to trend downward in Texas’ major metros. The majority of the statewide growth was attributed to the elevation in Austin and DFW values.

Texas’ months of inventory (MOI) normalized at 1.6 months as sales activity and new listings slowed. A total MOI around six months is considered a balanced housing market. Supply remained relatively constant across all price cohorts except in the upper and lower extremes. For example, inventory tightened for homes priced less than $300,000 and for luxury homes (those priced more than $500,000), diminishing to 1.2 and 2.5 months, respectively.

Inventory in the major metros decreased slightly in October, except in Houston, where MOI flattened at 1.7 months. Supply remained the most constrained in Austin at 0.9 months, while San Antonio’s MOI lowered to 1.7 months. North Texas’ metric declined at the largest rate, falling to 1.1 and 1.2 months in Dallas and Fort Worth, respectively. Depleted inventory remains a major headwind to the health of Texas’ housing market.

Demand

Total housing sales flattened in October, dipping 0.3 percent amid rising mortgage interest rates and dwindling inventory. The slowdown was attributed to historically low activity for homes priced less than $200,000. On the other hand, the number of homes sold priced between $400,000 and $499,999 reached an all-time high. Reduced transactions at the lower end of the price spectrum slightly outweighed the uptick in the higher price ranges.

Housing sales decreased in all metro areas except for in Dallas. San Antonio reflected statewide fluctuations across the price spectrum as total sales declined 1.5 percent. In Houston, the metric dropped 0.9 percent, while activity in Austin contracted 3.2 percent. Sales in North Texas slowed overall, decreasing 3.4 percent in Fort Worth. However, transactions in Dallas increased 1.9 percent due to strong gains for homes priced between $200,000 and $299,999.

Texas’ average days on market (DOM) rose marginally to 32 days, confirming robust demand and attributing sales decrease to limited inventory. Austin’s DOM improved by one day, averaging 19 days, while North Texas’ metric also increased, selling after an average of 23 days in Fort Worth and 27 days in Dallas. San Antonio’s and Houston’s metrics registered narrow gains, matching the statewide average of 32 days in both metros.

With monetary policy possibly normalizing, starting with the Federal Reserve Bank’s tapering of bond purchases, economic growth forecasts for the coming years point to a slow return to the long-run structural trend as the initial and strongest stage of recovery likely reached its peak. It’s becoming clearer that inflation pressures will be permanent. The ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield ticked up for the second consecutive month to 1.6 percent2, while the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate elevated to 3.1 percent. The median mortgage rate for the typical Texas homebuyer remained constant at 3.1 percent for GSE loans in September3 and ticked down ten basis points to 2.9 percent for non-GSE loans. Although mortgage interest rates rose over the past two months, Texas home-purchase applications increased in October but fell 6.5 percent YTD. Meanwhile, refinance applications declined on a monthly basis and were down 24.6 percent since December 2020. Year-over-year (YOY) purchase and refinance applications diminished 9.8 and 10 percent, respectively, largely due to baseline effects after a surge of remodeling and refinancing in 2020. Increasing rates, lenders adding more requisites, and the shrinking pool of households able to refinance are likely impacting refinance activity as well. (For more information, see “Finding a Representative Interest Rate for the Typical Texas Mortgagee“.

In September, the median loan-to-value ratio (LTV) constituting the “typical“ Texas conventional-loan mortgage dropped from 87.8 a year earlier to 84.5. The debt-to-income ratio (DTI) elevated from 35.4 to 36.4, while the median credit score increased ten points to 749 over the same period. The LTV GSE borrowers decreased from 85.4 last September to 85.9; however, DTI grew from 35.4 to 36.4. Overall improved credit profiles reflected the fact that only the most qualified housing applicants were able to outbid their competition for their desired homes amid exceptionally tight inventories and robust demand.

Prices

Average home prices were boosted by the ongoing shift in the composition of sales toward higher-priced homes due to constrained inventories at the lower end of the market. The Texas median home price rose for the tenth consecutive month, appreciating 1.4 percent on a monthly basis and 15.5 percent YOY to a record-breaking $312,700 in October. The share of luxury homes sold in Austin continued to expand, contributing to the 24.4 percent YOY surge in the median price ($453,600). The Dallas metric ($383,100) increased 17.6 percent, while annual price growth in Fort Worth ($319,600) shot up to 18.2 percent. Houston’s ($309,100) and San Antonio’s ($303,000) metrics elevated 15.1 and 18.4 percent, respectively.

The Texas Repeat Sales Home Price Index accounts for compositional price effects and provides a better measure of changes in single-family home values. Texas’ index corroborated significant home-price appreciation, accelerating 18.6 percent YOY. The repeat sales index also accelerated in the major metros, except in Austin and Houston, as annual price growth reached recent peaks. The metric dipped to 35.1 percent in Austin, followed by Dallas and Fort Worth with 24.1 and 22 percent home-price appreciation, respectively. San Antonio posted an 18.4 percent annual hike, while Houston’s index decelerated to 14.6 percent. Increasing home prices pressured housing affordability, particularly in an environment of low real wage growth.

Single-Family Forecast

The Texas Real Estate Research Center projected single-family housing sales using monthly pending listings from the preceding period (Table 1). Only one month in advance was projected due to uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic and the availability of reliable and timely data. Texas sales are expected to recover 2.7 percent in November after October’s decline. The metric is estimated to rebound 2.5 and 2.4 percent in Austin and Houston, respectively, with additional increases of 4.9 percent in DFW. Transactions in San Antonio, however, are forecasted to slow further to -3.6 percent. Sales through November 2021 should accelerate relative to the same period in 2020. On the supply side, inventories reached a trough in May 2021 and should improve in the coming months. Listings seemed to reach a trough in May and are rising, easing some of the price pressures amid a rise in new and pending listings. (For more information, see 2021 Mid-Year Texas Housing & Economic Outlook).

Household Pulse Survey

According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey, the share of homeowners behind on their mortgage payments increased to 6 percent nationally and 9 percent in Texas (Table 2). Houston and DFW hovered above the national average at 13 and 8 percent, respectively. The share of Texas respondents who were not current and expected foreclosure to be either very likely or somewhat likely in the next two months declined from 27 percent in September to 14 percent in October (Table 3). The proportion of delinquent individuals at risk of foreclosure fell in North Texas, decreasing from 20 to 18 percent, and declining 28 percentage points to 16 percent in Houston. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s foreclosure and REO eviction moratoria for properties owned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the Enterprises) expired Sept. 30, 2021. Continued stability in the housing market is essential to Texas’ economic recovery.

________________

1 All measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month over month, unless stated otherwise.

2 Bond and mortgage interest rates are nonseasonally adjusted. Loan-to-value ratios, debt-to-income ratios, and the credit score component are also nonseasonally adjusted.

3 The release of Texas mortgage rate data typically lag the Texas Housing Insight by one month.

Source – Luis B. Torres, Wesley Miller, Jacob Straus, and Brendan Harrison (Jan 5, 2022)

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/Texas-Housing-Insight

November 2021 Stats Blog Header

November 2021 DFW Area Real Estate Stats

November 2021 North Texas real estate stats are out and we’ve got the numbers! Our stats infographics include a year over year comparison and area highlights for single family homes and condos broken down by MLS area. We encourage you to share these infographics and video with your sphere.

For more stats information, pdfs and graphics of our stats including detailed information by MLS area and condo stats, visit the Resources section on our website at DFW Area Real Estate Statistics | Republic Title of Texas

For the full report from the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, click here. For NTREIS County reports click here.

Housing-Insight-Sept-2021

Texas Housing Insight – September 2021 Summary

Total Texas housing sales ticked up 0.9 percent during the third quarter as inventories remained relatively low in September. Most of the quarterly increase can be attributed to accelerated activity for existing homes priced above $300,000, offsetting the decline in new-home sales and reduced transactions in the lower price ranges. Texas’ homeownership rate decreased amid reduced housing affordability. Overall, housing demand remained healthy but was hindered by depleted inventories, pushing annual median home-price growth well into double-digit territory. Despite low levels of inventory, supply-side indicators declined compared with year-ago measures as supply chain issues persist.

Supply1

The Residential Construction Cycle (Coincident) Index, which measures current construction levels, decreased nationally but increased slightly for Texas as improvements in industry wages and employment outweighed depressed construction values. Construction activity is expected to slow in coming months as indicated by the Texas Residential Construction Leading Index (RCLI), which fell amid lower weighted building permits and housing starts, while the ten-year real Treasury bill yield decreased. Austin and Houston’s leading index reflected statewide fluctuations, while the trend decreased in the former and increased slightly in the latter. Dallas-Fort Worth (DFW) and San Antonio’s indexes decreased, trending downward despite issuing more building permits and elevating residential starts.

According to Zonda data, the supply side contracted at the earliest stage of the construction cycle with a 3.3 percent quarterly decrease in the number of new vacant developed lots (VDLs). DFW accounted for most of the losses amid a reduction in investment across all price cohorts except in homes priced between $400,000 and $499,000. Similarly, San Antonio’s lot development decreased significantly due to depressed activity at the bottom of the price spectrum. Despite the statewide contraction, Houston and Austin’s metric gained as VDLs intended for homes priced between $200,000 and $299,000 rebounded in the former and development heated up for lots targeted for homes selling between $300,000 and $399,000 in the latter.

Quarterly fluctuations in single-family construction permits reflected movements in VDLs. Although the metric ticked up 0.9 percent on a monthly basis, the trend continued its downward trajectory amid a recent reduction in issuance. Houston and DFW topped the national list at the metropolitan level and accounted for most of the state’s improvement, issuing 3,889 and 3,345 nonseasonally adjusted permits, respectively. In Central Texas, permits staggered in September and trended downward after negative quarterly growth. Austin issued 1,829 single-family permits, while San Antonio issued 1,061. Meanwhile, Texas’ multifamily sector registered a surge in issuance as investment shifted from duplexes, triplexes, and four-unit structures to buildings with five or more units. The multifamily metric remained up 13.3 percent year to date (YTD) relative to the same period last year.

With lumber prices falling, total Texas housing starts increased for the second consecutive quarter. Zonda data revealed roughly 38,000 homes broke ground in the Texas Triangle in 3Q2021, pushing single-family housing starts up 3.9 percent on a quarterly basis amid strengthening economic conditions and robust housing demand. Housing starts in North Texas and Austin reached an all-time high, increasing 8 and 13.8 percent, respectively, from last quarter. Activity also hit record levels in San Antonio, elevating 6.4 percent due to increased investment for homes priced more than $300,000 but decreased in Houston for similarly priced homes.

Single-family private construction values declined 14.4 percent this quarter, extending its contraction to four consecutive months as the metric trended downward in all of Texas’ major metros. On a monthly basis, however, values in Houston increased slightly, but the incremental change did little in lifting the 12.7 percent quarter-over-quarter (QOQ) reduction. Values also fell in Central Texas as Austin and San Antonio’s single-family construction contracted 18.3 and 19.4 percent, respectively. Similarly, activity in DFW declined 25.7 percent QOQ.

The number of homes added to the Texas Multiple Listing Services expanded in September, nudging Texas’ months of inventory (MOI) up to 1.6 months as inventory rose across all price ranges. A total MOI around six months is considered a balanced housing market. The price range at which inventory was at its most expansive was between $200,000 and $299,000, increasing its MOI to 1.3 months. Despite the monthly improvement, homes priced less than $300,000 remained constrained.

Supply in the major metros reflected the statewide fluctuation as inventories expanded at the metropolitan level. Austin’s MOI increased to a month, while the metric in North Texas and San Antonio flattened to 1.2 and 1.7 months, respectively. Although Houston’s overall MOI was greater than the state average at 1.4 months, inventory for homes priced less than $300,000 flattened to 1.2 months. Depleted inventory is a major headwind to the continued health of Texas’ housing market.

Demand

Sales rebounded in September despite ongoing inventory constraints, elevating total housing sales 0.9 percent QOQ. Strong quarterly growth in the luxury-home sector and double-digit growth for homes priced between $300,000 and $499,000 outweighed reduced activity for homes priced less than $300,000. The increase in the major metros exceeded the state average, except in Houston, where quarterly sales contracted.

In contrast to elevated quarterly sales in the existing-home market, Zonda data revealed negative sales growth in three of the major metros’ new-home sectors, pulling the statewide metric down 8.2 percent QOQ. New-home sales in Austin, however, rose 7.9 percent to 5,294 sales, rebounding after last quarter’s steep decline as activity accelerated for homes priced less than $200,000 and for homes priced between $400,000 and $499,000. New-home sales in North Texas and San Antonio declined 8.5 and 8.7 percent QOQ, respectively, even as transactions rose for homes priced between $400,000 and $499,000. Houston’s metric tumbled 13.6 percent QOQ.

Amid recovering economic conditions and overall robust sales activity, Texas’ homeownership rate ticked down to 63.5 percent, 1.7 percentage points below the U.S. rate, per the U.S. Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey/Housing Vacancy Survey. Nationally, homeownership dipped slightly from last quarter for white households but increased for minority households and householders under 35 years. Metro-level homeownership rates exceeded the national average only in San Antonio, where it improved 8.6 percentage points to 65.9 percent. The metric fell in Austin and Houston to 59.9 and 60.9 percent, respectively. The rate in North Texas ticked down 1.1 percentage points to 60.5 percent. Homeownership rates may remain depressed in the coming months as COVID-19 foreclosure-protection policies expired and home prices continue to rise.

Texas’ average days on market (DOM) increased from last month’s record low to 30 days. This marked the first increase since July 2020. The relatively low DOM indicated robust housing demand despite lackluster sales. Austin’s DOM shed almost six weeks off its year-ago reading, plummeting to an average of 18 days, while homes in North Texas sold after an average of 23 days in both Fort Worth and Dallas. San Antonio and Houston’s metrics also registered steep annual declines and hovered one day above the statewide average, falling to 31 days in each respective MSA. Despite monthly increases in the average DOM in all the major metros, the metric continued to trend downward as low levels persisted, corroborating strong housing demand.

During possible movement to monetary policy normalization starting with the tapering of bond purchases by the Federal Reserve Bank, economic growth forecasts for the rest of the year cooled as the initial and strongest stage of recovery likely reached its peak. It’s unclear whether inflation pressures are temporary or permanent. The ten-year U.S. Treasury bond yield increased to 1.4 percent but was down from pre-pandemic levels of 1.62 percent, and the Federal Home Loan Mortgage Corporation’s 30-year fixed-rate ticked up to 2.9 percent. For the typical Texas mortgagee, the median mortgage rate ticked down in August3 to 3.1 and 2.9 percent for GSE and non-GSE loans, respectively, and, similar to the national headline metric, remained constant relative to year-ago levels. Texas home-purchase applications increased for three consecutive months in September but diminished 12.7 percent YTD, and refinance applications declined 14.6 percent over the same period. Lenders adding more requisites and the shrinking pool of households able to refinance are likely impacting refinance activity. (For more information, see “Finding a Representative Interest Rate for the Typical Texas Mortgagee“.)

In August, the median loan-to-value ratio (LTV) constituting the “typical” Texas conventional home loan dropped from 87.8 a year ago to 84.3. The debt-to-income ratio (DTI) declined from 37.1 to 35.2, while the median credit score jumped 12 points in the last year to 752. The LTV and DTI for GSE borrowers decreased from 85.5 and 35.5 last August to 85.2 and 36, respectively. Overall improved credit profiles reflect the fact that only the most qualified housing applicants are able to outbid their competition for their desired homes amid exceptionally tight inventories and robust demand.

Prices

The Texas median home price rose for the ninth consecutive month, increasing 16.8 percent YOY to a record-breaking $310,100 in September. The ongoing compositional sales shift toward higher-priced homes contributed to a higher median price. The share of luxury-homes sold in Austin more than doubled in the last year, representing more than two-fifths of total transactions and contributing to the 28.3 percent YOY surge in the median price ($456,300). The Dallas metric ($378,300) gained 17 percent, while annual price growth in Fort Worth ($315,900) elevated 18.6 percent. Houston ($303,900) and San Antonio’s ($294,200) metrics rose 14.8 and 15.5 percent, respectively.

The Texas Repeat Sales Home Price Index accounts for compositional price effects and corroborated substantial home-price appreciation as the index hovered near a series maximum, gaining 18.2 percent YOY. The metric skyrocketed 36.1 percent in Austin, followed by North Texas with annual home-price appreciation at 22.9 and 20 percent in Dallas and Fort Worth, respectively. San Antonio posted a 17.2 percent annual hike, while Houston’s index registered double-digit growth for five consecutive months, elevating 14.9 percent. Rapid price growth outpaced wage gains, adding additional pressure to housing affordability.

Single-Family Forecast

The Texas Real Estate Research Center projected single-family housing sales using monthly pending listings from the preceding period (Table 1). Only one month in advance was projected due to uncertainty surrounding the COVID-19 pandemic and the availability of reliable and timely data. Texas sales are expected to tick down 0.3 percent in October after rebounding this month. The metric is estimated to decline 5 and 0.5 percent in Austin and San Antonio, respectively, with additional decreases of 0.8 percent in Houston. Only sales in DFW are expected to remain positive, increasing 0.7 percent next month. Sales through September 2021 should accelerate relative to the same period in 2020, except in North Texas, where forecasts predict a 2.1 percent dip in transactions.

Household Pulse Survey

According to the U.S. Census Bureau’s Household Pulse Survey, the share of Texas homeowners behind on their mortgage payments decreased to 5 percent in September (Table 2). The metric within Texas’ largest metropolitan areas mirrored the statewide average, except in Houston, where the share was 7 percent. The share of Texas respondents who were not current and expected foreclosure to be either very likely or somewhat likely in the next two months grew to 27 percent in September, higher than the national rate of 22 percent (Table 3). The proportion of delinquent individuals who were at risk of foreclosure declined in North Texas, falling to 20 percent, while Houston’s metric shot up 26 percentage points to 44 percent. The Federal Housing Finance Agency’s eviction moratorium for properties owned by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac (the Enterprises) officially expired as of Sept. 30, 2021. Continued stability in the housing market is essential to Texas’ economic recovery.

________________

1 All measurements are calculated using seasonally adjusted data, and percentage changes are calculated month over month, unless stated otherwise.

2 Bond and mortgage interest rates are nonseasonally adjusted. Loan-to-value ratios, debt-to-income ratios, and the credit score component are also nonseasonally adjusted.

3 The release of Texas mortgage rate data typically lag the Texas Housing Insight by one month.

Source – James P. Gaines, Luis B. Torres, Wesley Miller, Paige Silva, and Griffin Carter (November

Source – James P. Gaines, Luis B. Torres, Wesley Miller, Paige Silva, and Griffin Carter (November 23, 2021)

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/Texas-Housing-Insight

, 2021)

https://www.recenter.tamu.edu/articles/technical-report/Texas-Housing-Insight

October 2021 Stats Blog Graphic

October 2021 DFW Area Real Estate Stats

October 2021 North Texas real estate stats are out and we’ve got the numbers! Our stats infographics include a year over year comparison and area highlights for single family homes and condos broken down by MLS area. We encourage you to share these infographics and video with your sphere.

October 2021 stats alert! The third quarter of 2021 resembles much of the same across Collin, Dallas, Denton, Tarrant and Rockwall counties with active listings down about 30% and new listings down about 10%. The shortage of inventory remains here in North Texas. The number of sales in Dallas County was down 5.6% over last year, while in the other four counties they were down an average of 15% from 2020. Not surprisingly, the price per square foot in the metroplex continues to rise in all five counties with Collin County seeing the biggest increase up 29.1% over last year. It is a great time to be in the market in North Texas and we are thankful! 

For more stats information, pdfs and graphics of our stats including detailed information by MLS area and condo stats, visit the Resources section on our website at DFW Area Real Estate Statistics | Republic Title of Texas

For the full report from the Texas A&M Real Estate Research Center, click here. For NTREIS County reports click here.